Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
325 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2001

FOR THE SHORT TERM...TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES COVERING RNK
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 273 IN EFFECT
ACROSS WV AND VA UNTIL 500 PM EDT AND NUMBER 274 UNTIL 800 PM ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA. SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WARNINGS AND FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME. AS EXPECTED UPR DIV...GOOD
CAPES...INSTABILITY AND STRONG COLD FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN SQUALL
LINES. STRONG SFC COLD FRONT CLEARLY SEEN ON REGIONAL RADAR PLOT AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. WILL ALLOW FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE
AT 400 PM...SINCE THIS FRONT WITH INTENSE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF
FA THIS EVENING. TIMING OF FRONT ON MODELS LOOK FAIRLY CLOSE. I WILL
TRY AND BRING SOME DRYING IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO WED.
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO SETTLE INTO IL BY FRI. SEVERAL
SPOKES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW. UNSETTLED COOL
PERIOD INTO THE EXTENDED. FIRST ZONES UPDATE AT 400 PM.

FCSTID = 7
PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS
ROA   53  75  53  73 /  30  20  30  40
LYH   54  75  54  72 /  40  10  30  40
DAN   57  78  55  75 /  40  10  20  30
BLF   45  67  49  60 /  30  40  60  50
LWB   45  67  49  60 /  30  40  60  50
BCB   48  70  50  65 /  30  30  50  50
TNB   48  68  50  64 /  30  30  50  50

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-222200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1245 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2001

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA AND
VIRGINIA.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. BECAUSE OF THE SATURATED
GROUND FROM RAIN DURING THE PAST WEEK...FLASH FLOODING ALONG CREEKS
AND SMALL STREAMS IS POSSIBLE.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR LATER UPDATES AND
STATEMENTS.

AMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
224 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2001

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0200 PM    RICHLANDS                 VA   WIND DAMAGE
05/22/01   TAZEWELL                       LARGE TREES IN WESTERN
                                          PART OF COUNTY.REPORTED BY
                                          LAW ENFORCEMENT

TW

WVZ042-221930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
225 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2001

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS MERCER COUNTY
FROM 230 PM TO 330 PM. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS...POSSIBLY DOWNING SMALL TREE LIMBS. RAINFALL FROM
THE STORMS COULD REACH ONE INCH IN 45 MINUTES...WITH PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS AND LOW AREAS.

NOGUEIRA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
257 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2001

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....P

0248 PM    ATHENS                    WV   .88 INCH HAIL
05/22/01   MERCER                         REPORTED BY SPOTTER

VAZ022>024-033-034-222030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
344 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2001

...HIGH WINDS LIKELY BETWEEN 4:00 AND 5:00 PM...

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH WINDS WILL CROSS THE ROANOKE AND
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS BETWEEN 4:00 AND 5:00 PM.  WINDS NEAR 50
MILES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WINDS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MILES AN HOUR.
IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR YOUR SAFETY...MOVE INDOORS UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

PM