Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
155 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2001

INDIANA SHORT STILL PROGGED TO ROLL ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING.  ANALYZED WEAK LOW ON INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES VICINITY CELL
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  EAST WEST BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN WV.  IT
IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED TODAY AS PEGGED BY 6Z
MESO-ETA.  WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS ARE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...FIGURE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PROPAGATING ALONG BOUNDARY
AND POSSIBLY EVEN LEAN A LITTLE ESE...AND THUS HEAVIEST QPF WILL
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.  THUS
LEANING AWAY FROM IDEA OF ISSUING FFA FOR PRIMED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO.

WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SVR SOUTH
THIS EVENING.  LOOKS LIKE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT AS
SHORT WAVE ROLLS ON THROUGH...ALTHOUGH NGM SUGGEST SECOND WEAK SHORT
AND INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING UP NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST COULD PROLONG OR
RE-INSTIGATE ACTIVITY.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A NORTHWARD SURGE OF THE WARM AIR AND ANY
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY OF THE DIURNAL VARIETY WITH PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY PRESENT.  POTPOURRI OF CLOUDS AROUND IN THE MORNING
COULD ALSO GIVE RISE TO VARIOUS BOUNDARIES FOR STORMS TO FOCUS ON.

AVN NOW FASTER ON PUSHING FRONT THROUGH...WITH TIMING PUSHED UP TO
EARLY FRIDAY.  AT ANY RATE...FRONT SHOULD BE NEARBY
THURSDAY...WARRANTING AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS.  SHORT PUSHING
FRONT BACK NORTH THROUGH FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY SHOWN BY
EUROPEAN MODELS TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF AREA ON AVIATION.  WILL
PROBABLY STICK CLOSE TO CURRENT PACKAGE...WHICH HAS THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY AND POPS THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY
DRIER...COOLER WEATHER.

NUMBERS GENERALLY BALLPARK...LIKE FWC A LITTLE BETTER IN THE EARLIER
PERIODS...THEN LEAN TOWARD AVN.  POPS CURIOUSLY LOW THURSDAY WITH
FRONT IN VICINITY.  LESS INSTABILITY INDICATED PER CLOUDINESS AND
LESS INFLOW.

.RLX...
WV...NONE.
VA...NONE.
KY...NONE.
OH...NONE.

.END/TRM