Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
122 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

...WATCH UNTIL 7 PM LST WESTERN HALF...

MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED THE CURRENT SITUATION POORLY... HOWEVER ALL
POINT TO ACTIVITY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING AND A FINGER OF
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BOONE TO
AROUND LUMBERTON. THIS IS PUZZLING HOWEVER A CHECK OF THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY LENDS A CLUE. IF YOU LOOK AT CLOUDS ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND CLOUDS IN NORTH GEORGIA YOU CAN SEE THEM TURN
ANTICYCLONICALLY OVER NORTH CAROLINA. THE VORTEX OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NC IS AIDING CLOUDS AROUND ROXBORO THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO VIRGINIA.
THE VORTEX IS MARKED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE IMAGERY. THE AREA
OF SUBSIDENCE IS NOT GETTING SMALLER BUT BEING OBSCURED BY THE HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM THE NORTH GEORGIA CLOUDS. AS THE DRY AIR MOVES TO
THE NORTH AND VIRGINIA WE GET THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FROM BOONE TO LUMBERTON AREA. THUS LOOKS LIKE THIS EVENING
CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN THE SANDHILLS TO COASTAL PLAIN SOMEWHAT BUT
MAINLY THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS.

TONIGHT LOOKS AS IF THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE THE WESTERN ZONES AND
WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE FOR LIKELY POPS THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTS WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE AIR ABOVE 700 MB IS DRY AND DRYING.
MODELS ALL SEEM TO INDICATE THAT A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL PULL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND IT BACK ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. THE AIR WILL BE SINKING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND MUCH
MORE STABLE. A VORTEX CAN BE SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
MEMPHIS AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE HAS A LONG CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL NOT BE THE ONE
THAT CAUSES COULD BE IN NORTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY HELPING TO WRAP
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA... IT WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE PROJECTED
POSITION. THUS SOMETHING WOULD HAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS
AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO NORTH GEORGIA BY SUNDAY. THUS WILL GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED...THERE IS A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF U.S. AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MID-LEVEL CUT OFF LOW
COULD HELP TO DESTABILIZE UPPER LEVELS...BUT DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE REMAIN UNCERTAIN(WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
DIFFERING IN THEIR SOLUTIONS). IN THE LOW LEVELS (SFC-850MB) WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA...HELPING TO
MAINTAIN A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH~ TO
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. IMPOSSIBLE TO FAVOR ONE DAY
OVER ANOTHER...SO A CHANCE WILL BE INCLUDED EACH DAY.

.RAH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM LST WESTERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA.

CLINE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
430 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0418 PM    COKESBURY                 NC   .75 INCH HAIL
06/22/01   HARNETT

BL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
434 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0430 PM    RAVEN ROCK                NC   .75 INCH HAIL
06/22/01   HARNETT                        REPORTED BY SKYWARN
                                          WEATHER SPOTTER

ME/KK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
456 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0450 PM    MAMERS                    NC   1.00 INCH HAIL
06/22/01   HARNETT                        DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL
                                          REPOTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT

AR/KK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
710 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0705 PM    LAURINBURG                NC   .75 INCH HAIL
06/22/01   SCOTLAND                       REPORTED BY MEDIC

0645 PM    LAURINBURG                NC   WIND DAMAGE
06/22/01   SCOTLAND                       MEDIC REPORTED
                                          TREES...POWERLINES...AND
                                          TELEPHONE POLLS DOWN

MJB/JWC