Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
215 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2001

A CHECK OF THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAOB DATA SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM MEXICO THROUGH ARKLATEX TO
ILLINOIS/INDIANA AREA. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS A WELL DEFINED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM MEXICO...
A WEAK VORTMAX OVER IOWA MOVING TOWARD MISSOURI/ILLINOIS WITH A
TROUGH TO THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WEAK VORTMAX AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A CUTOFF VORTMAX IN EAST
KANSAS BY ALL THE MAJOR MODELS AT 12 UTC TODAY. AFTER THAT THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE SOLUTIONS. ONE FINAL NOTE IN DATA FIELDS A
NEW SOURCE OF MOISTURE HAS BEEN PICKED UP IN THE EAST PACIFIC AND
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH MEXICO ALONG THE EAST AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (THE NC SIDE OF THIS FEATURE).

IT LOOKS LIKE THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AND
GRADUALLY ELONGATE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE BY
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO HOLD LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BACK TO THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. IT SHOULD ALSO
HELP A GREAT DEAL OF THE MOISTURE TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND PLACES
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE OTHER VORTMAX SHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED
IN THE MOISTURE AND JET STREAM AND MOVE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS.

AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW ON THE NORTH COAST WILL HELP TO DELAY THE
WARM FRONT ON ITS TRACK TO THE PIEDMONT OF NC TODAY. FEELING IS THAT
WITH STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECT THE
FRONT TO MAKE IT MIDWAY THROUGH THE PIEDMONT LIKE THE PRIOR
FORECAST. PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THUNDER MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. INSTABILITY IS NOT ABUNDANT
AT ALL WITH THIS SYSTEM AND LOOK FOR THE TIMING OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO NOT BE MATCHED VERY WELL. MAINLY SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOOK FOR THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF RAIN WITH THIS EVENT TO
BE OVER BY NOON SATURDAY. WINDS GO WEST TO NORTHWEST AND PICK UP
LATE SATURDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK FOR LOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS IN TRIAD/TRIANGLE
AND VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE LIFT AND STABLE
AIR LOOK FOR FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
INSTEAD OF AN OUT AND OUT SNOW.

REST OF EXTENDED LOOKS DRY AT THE MOMENT. MODELS INDICATE AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE AREA ON MONDAY. MOST
OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO
850MB AND BELOW...SO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND DRY ON TUESDAY.

.RAH...NONE.

CLINE/SCHNEIDER

NCZ023>025-039>041-074>077-084>086-192300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTION.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
434 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 TO 50
MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS THROUGH 600 PM. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LINE OF STORMS. THE
STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH 515 PM WILL LIKELY AFFECT STANLY...
RICHMOND... DAVIDSON... MONTGOMERY AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES.
SPECIFICALLY... AREAS FROM HIGH ROCK... ALBEMARLE AND HAMLET
NORTHEAST THROUGH ASHEBORO... ARCHDALE... SEAGROVE... AND TROY.
&&
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 800 PM FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE WIND GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS MAY
EXCEED 58 MPH AND DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES. EVERYONE IN AND CLOSE
TO THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR
ROOM IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
BLINDING DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST FPROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

BADGETT