Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
240 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2001

...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN THE CONCERN...

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION TODAY AGAIN MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...ISOLATED TSRA
POPPING UP OVER THE PLAINS OF LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES AS WELL.
MAX TEMPS RUNNING VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAY...WITH READINGS
APPROACHING 100 DEGF OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY.

MODELWISE...CONTINUED REGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH FEW
DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS. IN THE LONGER TERM...MRF/AVN
STILL INSISTING UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. RETROGRADES BACK
TOWARD NORTH TEXAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHILE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE
PROGS AND ENSEMBLES ARE LESS REGRESSIVE. MRF/AVN HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO LAST SEVERAL RUNS. IF LOW CAN BACK
UP FAR ENOUGH WEST...WEAK BUT DEEP NERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY DEVELOP
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...EVENING CONVECTION AGAIN TO END QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE SUFFICIENT FOR MOUNTAIN ZONES.
WILL ADD SOME ISOLATED TSRA TO FAR EASTERN PLAINS ZONES AS
WELL...GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY NOTED ON RADAR.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...S/W ENERGY EJECTING FROM SWRN UPPER LOW
COMBINED WITH DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASED
PRECIP CHCS. BEST UPWARD MOTION NOTED ACROSS WRN CO AS S/W
TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD TUE/TUE NIGHT...THOUGH WEAK DIV-Q
FIELD SPREADS OVER THE ENTIRE CWFA BY EVENING. ETA/NGM MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS...WHILE AVN NOW APPEARS DRIER.
APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA OVER
THE SOUTHWEST MTNS BY TUE AFTERNOON...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ZONES 60/61. INCREASED PRECIP H2O SUGGEST A FEW POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. CHC POPS ELSEWHERE LOOK OK...LOWEST OVER THE ERN
PLAINS...WHERE SURGE PROGGED BY YESTERDAYS MODELS NOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE SHOULD
DROP MAX TEMPS A CATEGORY OR 2...THOUGH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL
AND WILL SHADE SLIGHTLY WARMER.

WEDNESDAY...SLOW MOVING S/W TROUGH OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD AGAIN PRODUCE SCT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. EXPECT MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TUE...AGAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE.

EXTENDED...RETROGRESSIVE NATURE OF UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS RIDGE
WILL MIGRATE BACK WESTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...THOUGH NOT FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO SHUT DOWN CONVECTION ENTIRELY. WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY MAKE ANOTHER ATTEMPT TO SURGE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR INCREASED CONVECTION. PERSISTENCE APPEARS TO
STILL BE A SAFE BET...SO WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT EXTENDED
FORECAST ANOTHER DAY.

.PUB...NONE.

PETERSEN