Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
214 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2001

MAIN CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...AND
THEN PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF NM SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION
THIS EVENING.  CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN MANY
AREAS HAS CAUSED A SLOW WARMUP.  CAPES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE TODAY
AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...WITH LESS THAN 1500 J/KG...AND THE LIS ARE
-2.  THERE STILL IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  SPC HAS TAKEN THE MDT
RISK OUT OF SE CO...BUT LEFT THE AREA IN A SLGT RISK. THERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE UNTIL LATE NIGHT OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS...BUT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIE FROM CO SOUTHWEST TO SE AZ/SW NM...WITH THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA. GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THE MOISTURE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LESS
TONIGHT AND WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST
SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD.

ON TUESDAY UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVER CO.  THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER EASTERN AREAS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE WESTERN AREA WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER AND
SHOULD SEE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL...ETA
INDICATES A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS. TUESDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE STATE AND BEHIND
THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CO PLAINS...THERE WILL BE A NORTHERLY
SURGE.

DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE
WESTERN U.S....WITH NW FLOW OVER CO.  THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE DRIER...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION.
WILL STILL GO WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL CO. WITH THE
NORTHERLY SURGE TUES NIGHT...TEMPS ON WED OVER THE SOME OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE COOLER.  WED NIGHT THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD END AFTER THE EVENING HOURS.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER ABOUT SRN NV.

EXTENDED (THU-MON):  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS
WARMING.  ON THURSDAY A LITTLE MOISTURE AND SOME UPSLOPE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS COULD STILL MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THEN THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY.  ON SATURDAY A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE WA AND SRN BC
COAST WHICH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF COLORADO. THIS UPPER LOW
THEN DROPS SOUTH INTO EASTERN OR BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY.  THIS
BRINGS CO A STRONGER SW FLOW...AND IT STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY.

.PUB...NONE.