Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
121 PM MDT FRI AUG 31 2001

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS WITH POPS
AND TEMPS THE CONCERNS THEREAFTER.

HEAVY RAIN WITH VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM THIS EVENING.  STORMS IN THE COLORADO SPRINGS AREA
PRODUCED 1 INCH HAIL FROM LOW CORE LOW VIL STORMS.  MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER COLORADO
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  AS THE HEATING ENDS THIS EVENING THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH...WITH MAYBE A FEW CONTINUING UNTIL
LATE NIGHT ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS ABUNDANT OVERNIGHT SO WILL NOT WORRY ABOUT
FOG AND STRATUS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SEASONAL.

ON SATURDAY THERE WILL STILL BE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CO WITH THE
BEST LIFT EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CO.  THE MOISTURE DOES
NOT LOOK AS ABUNDANT ON SATURDAY AS IT DOES TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS STILL LOOK GOOD.  TEMPS FOR SATURDAY LOOK TO BE A LITTLE
WARMER AND FWC NUMBERS LOOK OK.  SATURDAY NIGHT THE AVN HAS A STRONG
VORT CENTER DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN CO...WHILE THE ETA KEEPS
THE VORT CENTER FARTHER NORTH AND EAST.  IF THE AVN IS CORRECT IT
COULD MEAN A BETTER CHANCE THAN WHAT THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS...FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS.  GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY...
WILL LEAVE THE POPS AS THEY ARE...BUT WILL REMOVE THE EVENING
WORDING.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER CO.  MODELS STILL SHOW
SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP IN SLIGHT
CHANCE WORDING FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED (MON-FRI): MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE AREA WITH THE AVN SHOWING MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS RELATIVELY LIMITED.  WILL CONTINUE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  TEMPS DURING THESE DAYS SHOW ONLY A
LITTLE WARMING OVER SUNDAY.  THE LATEST MRF RUN HAS UPPER TROUGH
IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST CUTTING OFF AND MOVING INTO NV ON WEDNESDAY...
AND STALLING OUT THERE THROUGH FRIDAY. UKMET AND ECMWF ALL DIFFER ON
TROUGH LOCATION AT 12Z WED...WITH MRF THE STRONGEST AND FURTHEST
EAST. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MRF RUN WHICH TOOK THE
TROUGH AS AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH THE NRN US. THIS WOULD GIVE THE
FORECAST AREA SOUTHWEST FLOW WED-FRI WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
SHOWN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MEAN MORE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...THUS FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES AND
LET MID SHIFT LOOK AT THE NEXT RUN OF THE MRF.

.PUB...NONE.

COZ058>081-311900-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1140 AM MDT FRI AUG 31 2001

...THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO...

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS FOR ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS
COLORADO TODAY.  MEANWHILE...THERE IS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND THE
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING...WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS.  THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT ONE OR
TWO OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL NEAR 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
120 PM MDT FRI AUG 31 2001

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1220 PM    2W COLORADO SPRINGS       CO   0.75 INCH HAIL
08/31/01   EL PASO

1242 PM    3W COLORADO SPRINGS       CO   1.25 INCH HAIL
08/31/01   EL PASO

0102 PM    2W COLORADO SPRINGS       CO   0.75 INCH HAIL
08/31/01   EL PASO

0105 PM    4N COLORADO SPRINGS       CO   0.75 INCH HAIL
08/31/01   EL PASO

0124 PM    COLORADO SPRINGS          CO   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/31/01   EL PASO

0135 PM    3E COLORADO SPRINGS       CO   0.75 INCH HAIL
08/31/01   EL PASO