Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
230 PM MDT TUE AUG 28 2001

...SHORT TERM...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FIRING ALONG AXIS OF WK
MID-LVL SHRTWV TROF MOVG SEWRD THROUGH CNTRL CO ATTM MOSTLY HIGH
BASED PRODUCING GUSTY WNDS AND CG LIGHTNING.  HOTTEST CELLS
(50-55DBZ) ON RADAR IN THE VCNTY OF PIKES PEAK/TELLER CTY...CUSTER
AND CHAFFEE CTYS.  RUC AND ETA BNDRY LYR GRIDS ALSO SHOW AN INCREASE
IN LOW LVL MOISTURE UP AGAINST EAST SLOPE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO...
WET AND RAMPART RANGES NEXT 3-6 HRS WITH 850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE
OVR I-25 CORRIDOR.  EVEN WITH INCREASING SELY LOW LVL FLOW NEXT SVRL
HRS MODELS SHOW INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS E OMTNS REST OF THIS AFTN AND
EVE.  AT PRESENT SPEED SHOULD SEE HIGH COUNTRY CONVECTION MOVG OVR
I-25 CORRIDOR BEFORE 00Z WHERE 0-2KM CAPES APRCH 600 J/KG THRU
00Z/WED.  WND GUSTS TO 45 KTS AND CG LGTNG APRS TO BE MAIN THREAT.
AS STORMS MOVE OUT ACRS THE SERN PLAINS THIS EVE...SHOULD SEE STORM
ACTVTY DROP OFF UNTIL UPR LVL FORCING/STORM AXIS MOVES INTO DEEPER
MOISTURE/GREATER INSTABILITY OUT NR THE KANSAS BORDER.  ITS HERE
WHERE WND AND STABILITY PROFILES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD STG/SVR TSTMS
OVRNGT.  DONT SEE STORMS IN THE FAR SERN CTYS UNTIL AFT SUNSET.
OTWS...SHOULD SEE SKIES CLRG FM NW TO SE AS DRIER...SUBSIDENT AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND SHRTWV.  WITH INCREASING DOWNWARD FORCING LATER THIS
EVE...MIGHT SEE A PD OF GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WNDS ON EAST FACING
SLOPES.   BAKER

...LONG TERM...FOR WEDNESDAY DONT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE TO PTRN
HOWEVER AVN SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO CNTRL CO
BY LATE WED AFTN AS COMPARED TO ETA AND NGM.  AT FIRST GLANCE
INITALLY BELIEVED AVN WAS WAY OVERDONE HOWEVER STLT LOOP DOES SEEM
TO SHOW SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE OVR WRN UT THATIS LATCHING ON TO.
ASSOCIATED MSTR WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SCT TSTMS WED AFTN ACRS ERN SAN JUANS INTO SERN MTNS.  OVR SERN CO
LOW LVL FLOW WL CONT SLY ON WED AND ALLOW FOR ANOTHER WRM DAY
SIMILAR TO THIS AFTN.  SOME TSTMS WHICH FORM OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WED AFTN MAY MOVE ACRS LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE WED AFTN ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR FRM COS SOUTH TO TAD.  WITH RATHER LARGE DEWPOINT SPREADS
EXPECT STG GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING BUT LIMITED RAINFALL ESPECIALLY
OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  OVR THE SERN PLAINS PROBABLY WONT SEE
ANY TSTMS DURING THE AFTN HOURS.

FOR WED NGT AND THU NEXT FEATURE TO CONTEND WITH IS A CDFNT WHICH IS
FCST TO MOVE INTO SERN CO.  AVN AND NGM STRONGER AND QUICKER WITH
FNTL MOVEMENT INTO SERN CO THAN LATEST MESO-ETA WHICH WANTS TO STALL
FNT ALONG PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE DAY ON THU.  CONSIDERING
DISTURBANCE THAT IS FCST TO MOVE ACRS ERN CO WED NGT AND ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION WOULD TEND TO BELIEVE THAT FNT WL
GET PUSHED FUTHER SOUTH MORE QUICKLY AS SHOWN BY NGM AND AVN.  AS A
RESULT SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER LOW LVL MSTR VALUES ACRS
SERN CO ON THU.  AS FAR AS PCPN CHCS QUITE OF BIT OF MSTR WL BE
AROUND IN THE MID LVLS ACRS THE AREA TO PRODUCE SCT TSTMS IN THE
MTNS AND SERN FOOTHILLS THU AFTN.  OVR SERN CO WITH DEEPER LOW LVL
MSTR IN PLACE AND DVLPG ESE LOW FLOW BY AFTN SHOULD SEE AN INCRG CHC
FOR TSTMS FM COS SOUTHWARD TO TAD.  IF FNT MOVES ACRS SERN PLAINS
TOO QUICKLY THEN AIRMASS MAY GET STABILIZED INITIALLY WITH BEST CHC
OF STORMS HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTN OR EVENING.  TEMPS ON
THU ACRS SERN CO SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER UNLESS FNT
IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED.  LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS ONLY IN
THE 70S ACRS SERN CO ON THU HOWEVER MAV TEMPS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN
SHOWING A COLD BIAS SO WONT TREND THAT LOW AT THIS POINT.

IN THE EXTENDED PD SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND ON TSTMS ACRS THE MTNS
AND SERN CO ON FRI AS LOW AND MID LVL MOISTURE WL CONT.  IN ADDITION
LATEST AVN SHOWS FAIRLY 300 MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY MOVING ACRS AREA
WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE TSTMS.  WITH SELY LOW LVL FLOW TEMPS ON FRI
SHOULD BE NR NORMAL OVR SERN CO.

OVR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WK UPR LVL RDG WL GRADUALLY BUILD
OACRS RGN AND MAY ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND DECREASING
CHCS FOR TSTMS ESPECIALLY SUN THRU TUE.   KLEYLA

.PUB...NONE.

COZ058>081-282000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1158 AM MDT TUE AUG 28 2001

...THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BISECTING THE STATE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AT THE NOON HOUR WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE OUTLOOK
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  FURTHERMORE LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE USED TO FUEL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ON THE PLAINS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM FIRST OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE RAMPART AND SAWATCH RANGES...AND THE PIKE PEAK AREA OF TELLER
COUNTY BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM.  ISOLATED STORMS WILL THEN DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OVER THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF EL PASO...PUEBLO AND
CUSTER COUNTIES BETWEEN 1 AND 4 PM MDT.  THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SURROUNDING THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AS WELL AS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND
WET MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL ALSO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THIS PERIOD.

EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR WILL BE HIGH BASED.
THEREFORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LITTLE RAINFALL...WITH
STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
THE MAIN THREAT.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE BY LATE THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
ENDED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS OR
WIND CAUSED DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR ALL
YOUR WEATHER CONCERNS.

BAKER...WFO BOULDER