Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
234 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2001

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED FRONT ARCING SOUTHWEST FROM THE THUMB
OF MI TO KLAF...KSPI...THEN WESTWARD TO KMCI. AVN 06Z FRONTAL
POSITION FORECAST CLOSEST TO ACTUAL BUT FRONT STILL SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH. IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION ENTERING THE NE CORNER OF CWA BEING
DRIVEN BY A VORT MAX WHICH IS ALSO BEING HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE
00Z AVN RUN. WILL KEEP SIMILAR ZONE BREAKOUT TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING
OF FROPA AND CHC FOR CONVECTION. WITH DECENT LAYER RH AND LI'S IN
THE -2 TO -4 RANGE...WILL GO WITH SCT RW/TRW UNTIL FROPA...IE. EARLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND THROUGH MIDDAY ELSEWHERE.
STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN SECTIONS...BUT BY THEN MODELS DECREASE LAYER MOISTURE SO
WILL NOT TRY TO GET TOO FANCY. WILL MAKE A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND
THERE...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.

WITH N>O NEW EXTENDED DATA YET...WILL MAKE NO CHANGES THERE.

.PAH...NONE.

PACKETT

ILZ082-083-INZ085-KYZ014-051145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
546 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2001

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WABASH VALLEY...

AT 543 AM...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64.
THE STRONGEST STORM WAS ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH OF CARMI ILLINOIS. THE
STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE STRONG STORM NEAR CARMI WILL BE NEAR MOUNT VERNON INDIANA
BY 6 AM CDT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE STRONG WINDS UP
TO 45 MPH. MARBLE SIZE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM.

PERSONS IN THIS REGION SHOULD PREPARE FOR LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR LATER UPDATES ON THE
PROGRESS OF THESE STORMS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
838 AM CDT THU JUL 05 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

{0815 AM    GREENVILLE                KY   WIND DAMAGE
07/05/01   MUHLENBERG                     TREES DOWN JUST WEST OF
                                          GREENVILLE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
856 AM CDT THU JUL 05 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0540 AM    4N PATTERSON              MO   0.75 INCH HAIL
07/05/01   WAYNE                          REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTERS

DLL

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-051800-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1030 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2001

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WEST
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...VALID UNTIL 600 AM FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. ITS CURRENT POSITION WAS FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI...TO
JUST SOUTH OF ST. LOUIS TO NEAR TERRE HAUTE INDIANA. THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TO WESTERN
KENTUCKY. IT IS IN THIS AREA WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT EXISTS.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE DAY HOURS. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ANY OF
THE STORMS SHOULD BE HAIL...GUSTY WIND AND BRIEF HEAVY R=AINFALL.
STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE SOUTHEAST ABOUT 25 MPH.

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE ON STAND BY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED.

CN