Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
227 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2001

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST KANSAS. FROM THE LOW A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS
PACKAGE WILL BE TO DETERMINE WHEN THIS BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR CWA.

THE COMBINATION OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE
GULF AND WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT THE FRONT FROM MAKING
MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...WE WILL REMAIN IN A
WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. EXPECT SCATTERED RW/TRW THIS
AFTERNOON TO DISSIPATE THIS EVEVNING WITH RW/TRW REDEVELOPING ACROSS
ALL BUT THE SE QUARTER OF THE CWA BY MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE NOSE
OF THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY REGENERATION OF
CONVECTION. ON WEDNESDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST WHICH
WILL GIVE THE FRONT A GENTLE PUSH. WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES AND CROSSES PART OF THE REGION. AVN
MUCH FASTER WITH FROPA THAN THE ETA...SO WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE SE CORNER OF THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO WILL KEEP POPS ALL NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SE HALF OF CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM NW TO
SE. ON SATURDAY A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM DIVING SE ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD TOUCH OFF A FEW RW/TRW...OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED...IT LOOKS LIKE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

FWC/MAV TEMPS SIMILAR BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER FWC.

.PAH...NONE.

PACKETT