Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2001

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER OK PANHANDLE WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH MEM.
A TROUGH/WIND SHIFT WAS ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM THE LOW THROUGH
CENTRAL MO. THIS IS LIKELY BEING CAUSED BY OUTFLOW FROM THE
COLLISION OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND WAA. 00Z/MON UA RUN SHOWS 850
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MO THROUGH CENTRAL IL TO SOUTHWEST
IN. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS DEPICTS TSRA'S DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE 925 MB FRONT SEEMS TO ORIENTED WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SC MO TO SC KY. KPAH 88D WAS SHOWING SOME PRECIP FIRING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY IN W KY.

ONGOING PRECIP AND 00Z MON MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS ELEVATED PRECIP TO
CONTINUE FIRING ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AS 30 KNOT JET PUNCHES IN
FROM THE SOUTH. THE CONCENTRATION OF WHICH SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED
ALONG 850 FRONT. HIGH PRECIP CHCS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE 850
FRONT...BUT WITH LESS AREAL COVERAGE. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODELS
AGREE ON BOUNDARIES CONTINUE THEIR PUSH NORTHWARD. AS THE SURFACE
FRONT NEARS THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FA
WILL HAVE LI'S AROUND A NEGATIVE 6 AND SB CAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING ONE AND HALF INCHES.
NORTHERN SECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE FROM THE SURFACE AS
CAP WILL BE SLOWER TO BREAK THERE. OVERNIGHT THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES SOMEWHAT AND SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE WEATHER. AS WE HEAD
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN BECOME UNSTABLE
WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS. THIS IS ALREADY WELL
REFLECTED IN GOING ZONES AND WILL MAINTAIN TREND. THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED CHCS THROUGH MID WEEK AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER SOUTHWEST...
KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA AS LONG WAVE TROUGH STEEPENS
OVER THE EASTERN US. COLD FRONT SHOULD SWING EAST OF THE FA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WE(EK INTO THE WEEKEND

MAV AND FWC ARE IN RSNBL AGREEMENT WITH GOING ZONES AND WILL FOLLOW
TREND.

.PAH...NONE.
KH

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-041900-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1200 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2001

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL 600 AM TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
VAN BUREN MISSOURI TO PADUCAH KENTUCKY TO MADISONVILLE KENTUCKY.
SOUTH OF THAT LINE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE ISOLATED.

AT MIDDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE PANHANDLE
OF OKLAHOMA. FROM THE LOW A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG
THE OK/KS BORDER AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION EXTENDED EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...
EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. THESE BOUNDARIES
ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND
BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR
AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT
ATMOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT THE THREAT WILL BE MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS.

ANTICIPATED STORM MOTION WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JAP