Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
240 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2001

ON THE LATEST WEATHER MAP...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI...JUST WEST OF STL...INTO ARKANSAS.  WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROFS ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW. KPAH SHOWS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS BEING CAUSED BY THE SURFACE TROF
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MISSOURI.

FOR TONIGHT...THE TROFS OVER MISSOURI...BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT...
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET TONIGHT AS THESE SYSTEMS COMBINE WITH THE STEEP LOW
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT ARE PLACE.  NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD
HAVE A GREATER THREAT OF PRECIP AS MID-LEVEL TEMPS ARE COLDER AND
REGION IS CLOSER TO UPPER LOW.  SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.  STILL BELIEVE THERE IS A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS.  HOWEVER...THIS SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.

THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SO CLOSE...EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUDINESS THURSDAY. SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THUNDER THREAT SEEMS TO BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN ZONES AS
THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW AND ANY WEAK DYNAMICS.

THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER LOW
STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ONI MONDAY RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE A BLEND OF FWC...MAV AND PREVIOUS CCF
NUMBERS.

.PAH...NONE.

JSH

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-231930-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1226 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2001

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA UNTIL 600 AM THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
QUAD STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DAYTIME HEATING...COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL HELP SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE QUAD STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. A FEW OF
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST AT 35 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RSU/JSH