Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
145 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2001

MAIN PROBLEMS WITH ZONES WILL BE TIMING ENDING OF PRECIP TONIGHT/
WIND SPEEDS/POSSIBLE FLOODING THEN SKY/TEMPS ON SUNDAY.

MAIN SQUALL LINE JUST ENTERING WEST ARK AT 19Z. MODELS NOW VERY
CLOSE ON ALL FEATURES. WILL USE BLEND OVERALL...TWEAKING WITH
MESOETA HERE AND THERE.

SFC WINDS SHOULD MAX OUT THIS EVENING BEFORE SQUALPA/FROPA. WILL
MAINTAIN WINDY WORDING IN ZONES. THINK SPEEDS WILL HOLD IN 20 TO 35
MPH RANGE NEGATING NEED FOR WIND ADVISORY. DRY SLOT SHOULD HAVE
PASSED MOST OF THE PAH FA BY 2 AM. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE USED
SINCE MODELS SHOW SOME 1000-850MB MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND FRONT.
THIS SAME MOISTURE WILL ALSO LOITER INTO SUNDAY AND CU RULES/
SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT DIURNAL BUILDUPS...WILL CONTINUE WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WORDING.  WILL BE BREEZY INITIALLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING MOST ZONES...ESPECIALLY NORTH. MAY CHOOSE TO ADD THIS TO
ZONES...THEN TALK ABOUT WINDS DIMINISHING LATE.  WILL TAKE BLEND OF
FWC AND MAV MINS FOR MOST PART.

BASED ON FFG VALUES AND HPC ESTIMATES WILL NOT CONSIDER FFA. SQUALL
LINE MAY SPEED UP LATER TODAY AS ENERGY PUNCHES AROUND BOTTOM OF LOW
ANYWAY...LIMITING TOTAL QPF.

SOME CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT AS DIURNAL CU BURNS OFF. WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING. NEXT PAC SYSTEM NOW
SLAMMING INTO CALIF COAST FORECAST TO CUTOFF. MOISTURE EJECTING OUT
OF THIS SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN ARRIVING MONDAY. WILL
CHANGE MONDAY SKY WORDING TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS. CHANCE POPS WILL
BE INTRODUCED IN WESTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT FOR SHOWERS AS ORGANIZED
ENERGY PULLS OUT OF SW COMBINED WITH ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE NORTH.

PROXIMITY OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD MAKE MIDWEEK STRETCH INTERESTING.
PRECIP SHOULD EXIT AREA WEDNESDAY. COULD END AS SNOW. WILL REFLECT
THIS FOR NORTHERN ZONES BUT WILL LEAVE AS RAIN IN SOUTHERN ZONES FOR
NOW. MRF BRINGS OCCASIONAL BATCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL IN ALL PARTLY TO MOSTLY THRU
SATURDAY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING PRECIP FOR NOW.

.PAH...NONE.

SDB

MOZ100-107>109-242330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
357 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
UNTIL 900 PM...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND
DAMAGE AS THEY MOVE EAST AROUND 35 MPH. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE
STORMS SHOULD APPROACH CARTER AND RIPLEY COUNTIES AROUND 600 PM. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH A VAN BUREN TO DONIPHAN LINE BETWEEN 615
PM TO 645 PM.

RESIDENTS AND TRAVELERS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SHOULD BE WATCHFUL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY IF A STORM
TH)REATENS YOUR AREA.

MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-250130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
616 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI UNTIL 900 PM...

AT 605 PM...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM
ELLSINORE TO BRIAR. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS AS THEY MOVE EAST AT 45 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY REACH A
PERRYVILLE...ADVANCE TO DEXTER MISSOURI LINE BEFORE 730 PM. WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

MOZ087-110-111-250125-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
653 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI UNTIL 900 PMO...

AT 650 PM...A THUNDERSTORM NEAR PUXICO WAS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST
AT 65 MPH...AND WILL LIKELY REACH ADVANCE AT 710 PM AND CAPE
GIRARDEAU BY 720 PM. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WINDS BETWEEN
45 TO 55 MPH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST.

MOZ076-086-087-109>111-114-250200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
725 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI UNTIL 900 PM...

AT 720 PM...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM POPLAR BLUFF TO
GREENVILLE AND SILVER LAKE MISSOURI. THIS LINE WAS MOVING EAST AT
45 MPH...AND WILL LIKELY REACH NEAR JACKSON...VANDUSER AND NEW
MADRID BY 800 PM. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HOURLY RAINFALL TOTALS
FROM A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...AS WELL AS FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

THE HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE BRIEF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AS WELL
AS FILL CREEKS AND DITCHES TO BANKFULL.