Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
245 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2001

PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST SURFACE CHART DEPICTS A COLD FRONT
SAGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE. RADARS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
CONTINUE TO DEPICT ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT BACK TOWARD KSGF.

ACTIVITY MOVING INTO SEMO SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT MOVES INTO A DRIER...MORE STABLE AIR
MASS. FARTHER SOUTH...AM CONCERNED THAT THE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AS THEY
PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE
GREATER...WITH DECAYING SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

BY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHIFTS
A TAD BIT SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTH INTO THE
AREA...ENOUGH CAPPING SHOULD BE PRESENT TO LIMIT CONVECTION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT BEST...WITH NO MENTION IN ZONES
AT THIS TIME. WITH THE SURFACE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
BOTH DAYS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE STILL
PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LINGERS
BACK TO OUR NORTHWEST EVEN INTO SUNDAY. I WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR SATURDAY AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
FOR SUNDAY. WILL FOLLOW THIS WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY FORECAST
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED FWC/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT-TERM...AND
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED...KEEPING IN LINE WITH MAV
GUIDANCE.

.PAH...NONE.

PRESLEY

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-031900-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1200 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2001

THIS OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY IS VALID UNTIL 600 AM WEDNESDAY APRIL 4
2001.

AT MIDDAY...A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM WESTERN
MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. A CLUSTER
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE AIRMASS WAS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE NEAR THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO FORM
OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA AS WELL.

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WILL BE WHETHER OR
NOT THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER WESTERN MISSOURI WILL HOLD
TOGETHER...AND WILL CONVECTION FIRE UP TO OUR WEST OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI.

PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
SHOULD WEAKEN SOME AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER...EITHER
DEVELOPMENT OR PROPAGATION IS POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE WARMER
AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. CURRENTLY...THE
AIRMASS IN THIS REGION IS CAPPED. IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP
AND ORGANIZE IN THIS AREA...IT WOULD MOVE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ABOUT 35 MPH. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS IN A SLIGHT
RISK AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...
ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND MAGNITUDE OF WIND SHEAR FORECAST
SUGGESTS THAT HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE REQUESTED IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO TONIGHT.