Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
100 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2001

MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP.

SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW CENTERED OVER SC IOWA WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARN FRONT EXTENDING NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT LAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM POISED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

THE 00Z TUE MODEL RUN SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY AMONG THE MODELS WITH A
CHC OF PRECIP ENTIRE CWA AND BEST CHC OVER THE NORTH. THE WEAK
TROUGH SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING PRECIP TO
THE ENTIRE AREA. ETA FCST SOUNDING SHOW LIS TO NEARLY A NEGATIVE 5
WITH K INDICES TO 32. THUS WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF THUNDER TODAY.
BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE
AREA...PUSHING MAIN COLD FRONT THROUGH. NOT THE BEST LOCATION WITH
REGARDS TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET ON WED. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDING
INDICATE A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET BETWEEN 900 AND 800 MB. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL FORCING AND KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FCST WED ESPECIALLY NE SECTIONS. WED NGT MUCH COOLER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. WILL BRING
PRECIP CHCS TO END AT THAT TIME. FRIDAY APPEARS TO SHOW SOME
POSSIBILITY OF WRAP AROUND BRINGING SOME PRECIP TO THE NE SECTIONS.
MAY INTRODUCE SLGT CHC THERE...WILL MAKE CALL CLOSER TO PRESS
TIME...BUT WILL REMOVE FROM OTHER ZONES FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST LOOKS BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND RETURNING BY NEXT WEEK.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHORT
TERM. THUS WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY EARLY ON AND BLEND OF THE MODELS IN
THE LATER PERIODS.

.PAH...NONE.
KH