Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
232 PM CDT MON JUL 23 2001

PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND
EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

RW/TRW ALREADY BUBBLING UP RANDOMLY IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. LATEST SFC ANAL SHOWED
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MI...TO WEST CENTRL IL... TO
NORTHEAST NE...TO SOUTHWEST SD. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND MAKE IT TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF OUR CWA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN THE SAME BALLPARK
BRING THE FRONT SOUTH...THEIR SPEED DIFFERS SLIGHTLY (AVN SOLUTION
PREFERRED). WITH TIME THE ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE
EAST-WEST (QUASI-STATIONARY) ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTION BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING SO WILL PUT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA STARTING WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO RETREAT ALLOWING THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE NW THUS
GIVING THE FRONT A BETTER PUSH. THE FRONT AND ASSOC MOISTURE SHIELD
SHOULD CLEAR THE SE CORNER OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THAT TIME THE FRONT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE. ON MONDAY MRF SHOWING DROP
IN MEAN RH AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SO WILL KEEP
DRY.
WILL LEAVE HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AT THIS TIME.
WILL LET MID SHIFT UPGRADE TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IF NEW GUIDANCE
SHOWS NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIRD DAY IN A ROW.

.PAH...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

P,ACKETT