Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
205 AM CDT SUN JUL 22 2001

COVERAGE/DURATION OF POPS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS
FORECAST...BUT EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY A SERIOUS CONCERN.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE CWA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. MODELS THIN OUT THE MEAN RH TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND
WITH NO APPARENT TRIGGER MECHANISM...WILL MENTION CHC POPS THIS
EVENING...THEN DRY OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH
FWC/MAV POPS. BY MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE BEGINS TO POOL UP AHEAD OF A
VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ADDED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SCATTERED RW/TRW
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS VERY DIFFERENT
WITH FRONTAL POSITION AND MOVEMENT. ETA MODEL THE SLOWEST AND AVN
THE FASTEST. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND LITTLE OR NO
SIGN OF IT WEAKENING...DONT EXPECT FRONT TO BREAK ANY LAND SPEED
RECORDS ON ITS TREK SOUTH BUT THE ETA IS TYPICALLY TOO SLOW. NGM IN
BETWEEN SO WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS SOLUTION AS A COMPROMISE. BEYOND
TUESDAY FRONT WILL SUPPOSEDLY MAKE IT HALFWAY ACROSS THE CWA AND
STALL OUT IN AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT
WILL WAIVER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS EVERYWHERE THROUGH SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND
THE MEAN RH BEGINS TO DRY OUT SO WILL GO DRY ON SUNDAY.

WILL FOLLOW FWC MOS TEMPS CLOSELY. MAV MOS TOO COOL ON TUESDAY DUE
TO ITS TIMING OF THE FROPA.

THREW OUT A QUICK UPDATE A LITTLE WHILE AGO TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN
THIRD OF oTHE CWA IN THE HEAT ADVISORY. THE HEAT INDICES THERE ARE
MORE MARGINAL BUT MISERABLE ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ADVISORY.

.PAH...HEAT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

PACKETT

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-221930-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1112 AM CDT SUN JUL 22 2001

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY AND INCLUDES SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE QUAD STATE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND POSSIBLE MOST ANYWHERE IN
THE AREA.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...A SFC TROF...HEAT...AND HUMIDITY WILL
COMBINE TO TAP THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION THEREBY PRODUCING SCATTERED CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION AT MIDDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE WITH RE-DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL. GIVEN THE VERTICAL WIND
STRUCTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OR
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IF IT DOES OCCUR.

STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS
SLOW MOVEMENT COMBINED WITH DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAKES LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS A CONTINUED THREAT WITH ALL STORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

JAP