Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2001

ONGOING EARLY PM CONVECTION REASONABLY IDENTIFIED BY ALL
MODELS...AND PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDELY SCT THROUGH PM
HOURS AS THE VORT THAT IS HELPING DRIVE THIS PCPN EJECTS ACROSS
LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SPLIT THE PCPN UP BUT PERHAPS NOT
TOTALLY DIMINISH IT THRU EARLY EVENING. WL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THRU
PRESS TIME FOR FINAL DECISION ON ANY NEED FOR EVENING MENTION...BUT
MAY WELL END UP OPTING FOR ONE NIGHT-TIME POP AND ALLOW NOWCASTS TO
HANDLE NEAR TERM PCPN.

OVERNIGHT MAIN CHALLENGE IS IF/WHERE EXPECTED COMPLEX WL LAY OUT ITS
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT QPF. ALL MODELS SUGGEST IT WL BE PRIMARILY
TO THE EAST OF THIS AM'S CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD PRECLUDE NECESSITY
FOR FFA SINCE IT WOULD MOVE OVER DRIER GROUND. HOWEVER WITH RADAR
ESTIMATES YIELDING SOME TOTALS TO 5" OR HIGHER OVER PTNS SEMO/SW
IL...WL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND
ITS EVENTUAL TRACK TO ENSURE IT DOES INDEED MOVE EAST OF THE
SATURATED GROUNDS. ALSO NOTE MODELS SUGGEST A VERY LATE TONIGHT-INTO
FRI AM SCENARIO BEFORE NEXT BOUT OF QPF...ALLOWING SUFFICIENT
ADDITIONAL TIME FOR DEVELOPING HANDLE ON COMPLEX.

WL ADJUST FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND EAST LATE
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...TAPERING TO LOWER CHC CAT POPS SOUTH AND WEST.
MAY OPT TO LINGER CHC CAT POP SE PTNS EARLY FRI NIGHT TIL VORT
DEPARTS WELL TO SE...BUT WON'T QUITE BUY INTO NGM POPS WHICH PERHAPS
DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FAILS TO SEPARATE OUR PCPN FM NEXT SYS
UPSTREAM.

EXTENDED FCST STILL LOOKS FOR MOST PART DRY...BUT WITH RIDGE
BROADENING...MID LEVEL CAP IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN PAST DAYS RUNS.
AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLD DIURNAL
CHC POPPING UP...BUT BELIEVE FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED CHC'S ARE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THEIR INTRODUCTION. WL 3
HOWEVER ADD CHC TO LATE EXTENDED FCST FOR MID WEEK...AS ERN CANADIAN
TROF BUCKLES HEIGHTS/ERODES CAP FURTHER AND MEAN COLUMNAR MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER PAH FA.

.PAH...NONE.
DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1120 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0530 PM    5S GREENVILLE             MO   0.88 INCH HAIL
07/18/01   WAYNE                          REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC.

0500 PM                              KY   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/01   CALDWELL                       NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ALONG
                                          AND EAST OF HWY 91.
                                          REPORTED BY UTILITY
                                          COMPANY.

0430 PM    EDDYVILLE                 KY   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/01   LYON                           5-6 LARGE TREES UPROOTED
                                          IN THE CITY PARK AND IN
                                          RESIDENTAL AREAS.
                                          REPORTED BY LAND BETWEEN                                             THE LAKES PERSONNEL.

0345 PM    ROSICLARE                 IL   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/01   HARDIN                         FEW TREES DOWN IN
                                          ROSICLARE AND NUMEROUS
                                          TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE
                                          REPORTED BY EOC.

0200 PM                              IL   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/01   PERRY                          NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON
                                          POWER LINES WITHIN COUNTY
                                          AS STORM WENT THROUGH.
                                          REPORTED BY UTILITY
                                          COMPANY.

0200 PM    DUQUOIN                   IL   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/01   PERRY                          ALUMINUM BORDER ON ROOF
                                          OF HOUSE DAMAGED ON PARK
                                          STREET. REPORTED BY HOTEL
                                          EMPLOYEE.

0345 PM                              IL   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/01   POPE                           NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ALL
                                          OVER COUNTY. REPORTED BY
                                          POST OFFICE EMPLOYEES.

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-191900-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1151 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2001

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID UNTIL 600 AM FRIDAY AND INCLUDES SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH SEVERE LIMITS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF THE WABASH
AND LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH STORMS BECOMING MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

STILL ENTRENCHED OVER THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
IS A WARM AND SOUPY AIR MASS. LATE MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE EJECTS
ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED
IN ITS WAKE...AS THE FUELING MECHANISM SHIFTS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. THE EXTENT OF LEFTOVER CLOUDINESS
MAY SOMEWHAT INHIBIT LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT...RESULTING
IN ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. CHANCES WILL THEN PICK UP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE PRIMARY THREAT OF STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS. A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN A MOISTURE RICH AND
HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY HELP FOCUS STORMS AND CONTRIBUTE TO
STORMS REPEATING OVER THE SAME AREAS...WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

OVERNIGHT...A STILL SOUPY AIR MASS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED AS THE MORE
POTENT DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. A
CONTINUATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HIGH INSTABILITY...AND
GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WILL MAKE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT...IF SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS...WIND DAMAGING STORMS.

STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH.
HOWEVER STORMS MAY REDEVELOP...OR BACKBUILD...TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WHICH COULD RESULT IN REPEAT STORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MAKES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
A CONTINUED THREAT BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SPOTTERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN ALERT STATUS IN CASE THEIR
ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

DH