Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2001

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS TIMING THE END OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF CHICAGO...SAINT LOUIS...AND
TULSA. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...
WITH MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...A
SCATTERING OF MID CLOUDS WAS FOUND ACROSS THE FOUR-STATE AREA.

LOOKING FORWARD...ALL MODELS HANDLE THE UPCOMING WEATHER SCENARIO
WELL AND HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. THE COLD FRONT
WILL TAKE ITS TIME DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AS
THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AREA. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST KENTUCKY. WITH AN 850 MB
THETA-E RIDGE IN PLACE...SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...AND WEAK
PVA...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.
WITH THE FRONT BISECTING THE AREA AT 18Z...THE FOCUS FOR MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST OVER 1.75 INCHES
WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER 30S...SO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS
COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

AFTER A LINGERING CHANCE POP IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS EVENING...
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT. AS THE CLEARING SKIES PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF NEAR CALM SURFACE
AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG. MOS
GUIDANCE HAS HINTED AT THIS SCENARIO FOR AT LEAST THREE CONSECUTIVE
RUNS...SO FEEL ITS INCLUSION IS STILL WARRANTED.

WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ARE
SHAPING UP TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND LESS HUMID. THEN THE MODELS BRING
ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH ON TUESDAY. LATEST 00Z AVN ACTUALLY GENERATES
SMALL AMOUNTS OF QPF WITH THIS NEXT FRONT. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...
HOWEVER...BELIEVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A BOOSTER SHOT OF
LESS HUMID AIR WILL BE THE ONLY EFFECTS OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR MID-WEEK WEATHER WITH
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THEN THE APPROACH OF A MUCH MORE POTENT
SYSTEM WILL GIVE THE REGION ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LATEST MRF INDICATES THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
THE INVASION OF A REFRESHING CANADIAN AIR MASS FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEKEND.

GOING ZONES HANDLE THIS SCENARIO WELL...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS ARE
ANTICIPATED. MAV/FWC MOS GUIDANCE CLOSE...AND SEE NO REASON FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION.

.PAH...NONE.

PRESLEY

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-261830-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1124 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2001

THIS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IT IS VALID
UNTIL 600 AM MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS OF LATE THIS MORNING...THE FRONT WAS ALREADY ALONG A
LINE FROM  FAIRFIELD ILLINOIS...TO CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI...TO
POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AN EVANSVILLE TO PADUCAH LINE BY
300 PM....AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 1000 PM. THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END WITH THE PASSING OF THE FRONT.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT ARE VERY WEAK...
SO STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS A THREAT. DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL AID IN PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY.

STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE QUAD STATE AREA.

SPODEN

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-261930-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
130 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2001

THIS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IT IS VALID
UNTIL 600 AM MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WAS GENERALLY
ALONG A LINE FROM PRINCETON INDIANA...TO CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI...
TO NEAR VAN BUREN MISSOURI.

THE MAIN FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AN OWENSBORO TO
PADUCAH LINE BY 500 PM....AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 1000
PM. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA.

AS THE FRONT MOVE EAST AND SOUTH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT ARE VERY WEAK...SO STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND
HEAVY RAINFALL IS A THREAT. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL AID IN PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.