Severe Thunderstorm Warning 533, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2001

SOME FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR ESTIMATES OF 10-12 INCHES OF RAINFALL LOOK SOMEWHAT
OVERDONE... BUT AT LEAST 6-8 INCHES LOCALLY SEEMS REASONABLE IN THAT
AREA. THE REGION OF PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA SHOWS SIGNS OF SHRINKING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SINCE
FLOODING IS CONFINED TO MAINLY ONE COUNTY ATTM...AND CONSIDERING CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES.  FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL
BE MORE LIKELY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CURRENT SOUTH CENTRAL HEAVY
RAIN AREA.

UPPER LOW OVER NORTH TEXAS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SENDING WEAK
SHORT WAVES NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO OKLAHOMA/N TEXAS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  A WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS ALSO FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH WITH TIME.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY VERY MOIST AND UNCAPPED AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THAT WAY FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 36 HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF
THE CWA FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL REFLECT THIS
WITH THE POP FORECAST WHICH RANGES FROM 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST TO 30S
IN THE NORTH.

BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO SWING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL START TO OPEN UP THE MEADNERING UPPER LOW
ACROSS TEXAS.  THIS WILL ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.  UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY
LIFT OUT THURSDAY AND WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES THU MORNING IN THE
WEST AND CHANCES ELSEWHERE INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD BE
STATUS QUO FOR WED-THU WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE 80S. WILL KEEP THE
BRIEF WARMUP AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BIG CHANGE SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS STARTING LAST EVENING FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE /FRI-SUN PERIOD/ IS CONTINUED AGAIN WITH THIS MORNINGS
RUNS.  THE LATEST AVN SHOWS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW DRIFTING ACROSS
THE S-C PLAINS FRI INTO SUNDAY.  LATEST CANADIAN MODEL SUPPORTS THIS
TREND AS WELL...AS DOES THE ETA OUT THROUGH THU NIGHT.  WITH THIS
NEW TREND IN MIND...AND CONTINUING FOR A COUPLE MODEL RUNS...WILL
SHIFT THINKING A BIT ON NEXT SYSTEM.  HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS IN
THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE NOW EXTENDED PRECIP CHANCES
AND UPPED POPS AREAWIDE THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT MON-TUE LOOK DRY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE WEEKEND UPPER SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REGAINING A FOOTHOLD BY MIDWEEK.

FCSTID = 33/DLF
OKC   68  88  68  90 /  50  40  40  40
HBR   67  88  68  92 /  50  40  40  20
SPS   69  88  69  92 /  50  40  40  20
GAG   66  88  67  92 /  30  40  40  20
PNC   68  88  68  90 /  30  40  40  40
DUA   70  88  70  90 /  70  40  40  40

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 PM CDT TUE SEP 04 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0220 PM    SHAY                      OK   FLOODING
09/04/01   MARSHALL                       SHAY CUTTOFF RD CLOSED TO
                                          HWY 377. RPTD BY COUNTY CREW

0245 PM    ENOS                      OK   FLOODING
09/04/01   MARSHALL                       SECTION LINE ROADS CLOSED
                                          IN ENOS, WATER OVER ROADS.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
540 PM CDT TUE SEP 04 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0505 PM    4 WSW WEATHERFORD         OK   65 MPH WIND GUST
09/04/01   CUSTER                         RECORDED BY MESONET.

KT