Severe Thunderstorm Warning 491, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
315 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2001

WARMEST 850MB AIR PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM W TX INTO KS BY TUE MORNING,
WHICH RESULTS IN WEAKENING OF LL WAA FIELD TONIGHT. BUT WITH UPPER
HIGH PROGGED TO REMAIN S OF AREA, AND AT LEAST N PARTS OF AREA
REMAINING NEAR S EDGE OF WESTERLIES, CANNOT RULE OUT A REPEAT OF
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OF PAST COUPLE NIGHTS. SURFACE BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY FROM NW TO ECENTRAL OK IS PROGGED BY ETA/RUC TO LINGER
INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING. BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCT
SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS FROM NE TX PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL OK
ATTEST TO CONTINUED PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT. WE WILL
KEEP LOW POPS TONIGHT ACROSS N ZONES, CONTINUING INTO TUE MORNING
NCENTRAL OK. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THEM INTO ALL BUT THE SW TONIGHT IF
CURRENT ELEVATED CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER. THIS WILL BE A
LAST-MINUTE DECISION AT PRESS TIME.

WE ARE GETTING VERY CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SW ZONES, AND
IN FACT HAVE ACHIEVED THEM IN A FEW SPOTS WITH MESONET NOW SHOWING
WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES 105-109 AND A COUPLE MORNING LOWS AOA 80.
BUT WITH CO-OP STATION LOWS GENERALLY IN LOW-MID 70S, AND AFTER
COORD W/FTW, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT INSERT
HEADLINES IN ZONES FOR CONTINUING HEAT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY IN LATER PACKAGES.

BEYOND TUE, PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH AS UPPER HIGH RETURNS TO ITS
USUAL POSITION OVER OK. HOT AND DRY, WITH HOTTEST/DRIEST CONDITIONS
INITIALLY REMAINING IN SW ZONES - WHICH HAVE RECEIVED NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IN THE PAST MONTH OR MORE. EVENTUALLY, EXPECT THE FESTERING
HEAT BOX IN NW/NC OK TO CATCH UP, AS SHIFT OF THE 850MB THERMAL MAX
TOWARD KS WILL QUICKLY BAKE OFF ANY GROUND MOISTURE LEFT FROM
WEEKEND RAINFALL THERE. WILL BRING HIGHS BOTH AREAS TO 105-110 BY
THU. SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE W COAST TROF WILL NUDGE THE HIGH
CENTER E INTO AR, OR EVEN MID-MS VALLEY, PER ECMWF/NOGAPS. OTHER
MODELS KEEP IT CLOSER TO AREA. SO WOULD CLIMATOLOGY. WITHOUT ENOUGH
CONSISTENCY AMONG THE MODELS, WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND KEEP IT
HOT AND DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MRF/ECMWF WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND BRING A FRONT INTO KS BY SUN, WITH MRF SAGGING IT INTO OK
MY NEXT MON. GAVE SOME THOUGHT TO ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE SUN-MON, BUT
FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF PENDING MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY REGARDING
FRONTAL EVOLUTION DAYS 6-7. FOR NOW, WILL TREND TOWARD PTCLDY AND
LOWER TEMPS ONLY SLIGHTLY BY MON.

FCSTID = 24
PRELIM NUMBERS...
OKC   76  98  76  99 /  10  10  10  10
HBR   75 103  75 104 /  10  10  10  10
SPS   77 105  77 105 /  10  10  10  10
GAG   72 101  72 102 /  10  10  10h  10
PNC   74  97  75  99 /  20  20  10  10
DUA   75  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  10

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
539 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0510 PM    ANADARKO                  OK   WIND DAMAGE
07/16/01   CADDO                          AMATURE RADIO REPORT

J