Severe Thunderstorm Warning 428, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
400 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

A STRONG COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING WILL PRESS ON TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG UPPER WAVE TO OUR WEST WILL
APPROACH AND...AMONG OTHER THINGS...HAVE THE EFFECT OF REDUCING THE
STRONG CAP CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION.  MESOETA SUGGESTS THAT STORMS
COULD FORM AT ANY TIME...BUT WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF OUR AREA.  THE STORMS SHOULD
PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.

THE SPC SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREAS LOOK REASONABLE AND THE ZONE
FORECASTS WILL BE WORDED ACCORDINGLY.  HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A CONCERN
IN THE SOUTHEAST...AND THIS WILL BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT.

THE DEW POINT AND WIND FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT ARE WILDLY DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE AVN AND ETA MODELS.  THE AVN BRINGS THE DRY/COOL AIR
SURGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE ETA SHOWS THE FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT BECOMING VERY DISORGANIZED AND LIGHT...WITH DEW POINTS
BARELY DROPPING FROM DAYTIME PRE-FRONTAL VALUES.  HAVE OPTED TO
COMPROMISE SOMEWHAT BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...MUCH LIKE THE NGM
VERSION.

THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES ON
FRIDAY... THEN IT LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER WITH SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES ON INTO THE NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE PARKS
ITSELF OVER THE REGION.

TGIF.

FCSTID = 23 = CMS

OKC   84  65  87  65 /  40  40  10   0
HBR   85  62  88  64 /  30  20   0   0
SPS   90  65  90  65 /  40  40  10   0
GAG   78  53  88  62 /  20  10   0   0
PNC   83  63  86  65 /  40  20   0   0
DUA   92  69  85  68 /  40  60  20  10

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-141500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
700 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY EAST OF A
KNOX CITY TO ANADARKO TO STILLWATER LINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE MODERATE RISK...AND EAST OF A QUANAH
TO MEDFORD LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...WITH TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MODERATE RISK
AREA.

A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE VICNITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
THE FRONT...AIDED BY AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO REACH A CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LINE BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
80S AND 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS THIS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IN
ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY...STRENGTHENING WINDS IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HELP STORMS TO BECOME RAPIDLY
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN WICHITA FALLS AND ABILENE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
PLACE SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY AREA IN A
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SUPERCELLS...AND PERHAPS
TORNADOES.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS THE RISK
AREA.	..ESPECIALLY FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

2/23