Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2001

TOO MUCH GOING ON TO GET VERY FANCY WITH THE DISCUSSION....

AN EXTREMELY VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES IS EXPECTED TO BRING SEVERE STORMS AND HIGH WINDS TO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  SEE SPC PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS ON THE
THUNDERSTORM/TORNADO POTENTIAL.  THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
CONTINUING STORMS... ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT SEVERE... FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER THE MAIN SQUALL LINE PASSES.

AWESOME WINDS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS ARE EXPECTED
TO ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA BEFORE
NIGHTTIME EFFECTS CAUSE THEM TO WEAKEN.  THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THIS EVENING.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  AS IT MEANDERS ACROSS THAT
REGION... THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND THOUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK... ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

ZONE FORECAST SHOULD BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY AFTER 4 PM.

FCSTID = 23 = CMS

OKC   58  79  57  79 /  70  10  10  20
HBR   53  77  53  79 /  70  10  10  20
SPS   56  80  56  80 /  60  10  10  20
GAG   51  76  50  79 /  80   0   0  10
PNC   56  77  54  79 /  80  10  10  10
DUA   60  80  57  80 /  70  20  10  20

.OUN...
OK...HIGH WIND WARNING THIS EVENING... WESTERN HALF OF FA.
     WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT ALL ZONES.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING THIS EVENING... ALL ZONES.
     WIND ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT... ALL ZONES.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-062000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2001

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HOLLIS...TO ALTUS... TO
KINGFISHER... TO PONCA CITY. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK THROUGH
MIDNIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CROWELL TEXAS... TO DUNCAN...
TO STROUD. A SLIGHT RISK COVERS THE REST OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH RISK AREA. DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND
VERY LARGE HAIL ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MODERATE AND
HIGH RISK AREAS.

THICK... WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... AND WESTERN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA... THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IN MOST AREAS... AND WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. STRONGER AND MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST...
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... AND BUILD SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE
3 PM TO 6 PM TIME FRAME...MOST LIKELY ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF A DRY
LINE AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN BORDER OF OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COULD DEVELOP FARTHER AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
LATE TODAY... MOST LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OKLAHOMA. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG TORNADOES... WILL BE IN THE HIGH RISK AREA FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE BY MID TO
LATE EVENING... AND MOVE FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL SHIFT TOWARD DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS DURING THE LATE EVENING... BUT LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

VERY STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST ALSO MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE DRY
LINE... MOST LIKELY THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REVIEW HOME AND BUSINESS SAFETY PLANS...
MAKE SURE WEATHER RADIOS HAVE GOOD BATTERIES AND ARE PROGRAMMED
PROPERLY FOR YOUR AREA... AND LISTEN FOR LATER INFORMATION...
POSSIBLY INCLUDING SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

&&

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER NETWORKS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
AND THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS BEGINNING AT ANY TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. THOSE IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... AND THE REST OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... LIKELY WILL NOT NEED TO ACTIVATE UNTIL
EARLY EVENING.... AND THOSE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAY NOT NEED
TO ACTIVATE UNTIL AFTER DARK.

SEE THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK AND ANY SPC CONVECTIVE DISCUSSIONS
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL HIGH WIND SITUATION
ARE COVERED IN THE LATEST OKCNPWOKC.