Severe Thunderstorm Warning 405, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
356 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2001

BAROCLINIC ZONE RAMAINS MORE OR LESS STATIONARY ROUGHLY FROM
KGAG...TO KICT...INTO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXPECT BOUNDARY TO
LIGHT UP ACROSS NORTHWEST OK...AND TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH WEAKER CAP IN PLACE...ANTICIPATE
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY. DESPITE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS/CU...TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...YIELDING CAPES AS HIGH AS 4000
J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. HIGHEST POPS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES...WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER
LOW LEVEL BOUNDAY. CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...THUS HIGHER POPS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THOSE AREAS FOR TOMORROW.

AFTER TONIGHT...FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL
STORM ALLISON...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. ANY DIRECT EFFECT
ON OUR WEATHER...IF ANY AT ALL...WILL BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. OF MORE CONCERN FOR OUR AREA
IS THE ALTERING OF UPPER AIR AND SURFACE PATTERNS EXPECTED TO BE
BROUGHT ABOUT BY THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS MAKING A DIFFICULT FORECAST
OF THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND
RIDING NORTHWEST FLOW INTO OUR PART OF THE WORLD LATER IN THE WEEK.
ANY DISRUPTION IN TERMS OF MOISTURE RETURN...OR THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHETHER ANY CONVECTION
CAN MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP OVER
OUR AREA...WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND...
MAINLY WITH NOCTURNAL AND/OR MORNING WORDING.

NEW PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT ON
GRADUALLY BUILDING MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA. ALONG
THOSE LINES...WILL KEEP THE LAST 2 DAYS OF THE EXTENDED DRY.

LANE

OKC   69  82  65  84 /  40  30  20  20
HBR   67  84  64  85 /  40  30  20  20
SPS   69  86  67  87 /  30  40  20  20
GAG   59  83  59  87 /  40  20  20  20
PNC   64  82  63  85 /  60  20  20  20
DUA   71  85  66  84 /  20  40  30  20

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-052030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT... OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM PONCA
CITY... TO LAWTON... TO SEYMOUR. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY
OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF A DRY LINE AS IT MOVES EAST FROM WEST TEXAS
TOWARD THE WESTERN BORDER OF OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE THIS EVENING...AND BUILD
SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... BUT THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS THROUGHOUT THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

30

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
356 PM CDT TUE JUN 05 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1245 AM    TALOGA                    OK   .75 INCH HAIL
06/05/01   DEWEY                          RPTD BY PUBLIC

1145 PM    CAMARGO                   OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
06/04/01   DEWEY                          RPTD BY PUBLIC

1130 PM    ROLL                      OK   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/04/01 E  ROGER MILLS                    RPTD BY PUBLIC

TL

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 PM CDT TUE JUN 05 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0542 PM    14 NE CAMP HOUSTON        OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
06/05/01   WOODS                          RPTD BY PUBLIC.

TL