Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2001

TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER
AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE
CONTINUE TO WATCH SLOW PROGRESS OF MCV ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY SCATTERED ELEVATED SHRA. BEST AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIP HAS BEEN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE CAP
IS WEAKEST. MID/UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION SHOULD SUSTAIN CONVERGENCE
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGING
CONVECTION SOUTHWARD INTO MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. PLAN ON
HIGHEST POPS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. WILL MONITOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS BEFORE
ISSUANCE FOR FINAL DECISION. NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH COLD FRONT WILL BE
BY 12 SATURDAY ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY
EFFECTIVELY ACT AS THE PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ZONE WELL SOUTH OF IT. IN
ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION...CONCERNED
THAT POOLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY TAKE PLACE NORTH OF
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SATURDAY ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE QUITE
EASILY WITH ADDITIONAL DIABATIC HEATING WITH ONLY WEAK LIFT LIKELY
REQUIRED FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT. SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER FOR ALL OF SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY IT APPEARS
UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF PRECIP CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ARE
DISPLAYED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS BY DAYS 3 AND 4 WHICH ARE LIKELY DUE TO
POORLY RESOLVED SHORTWAVES MOVING QUICKLY INTO THE WEST COAST ANY OF
WHICH COULD RESULT IN PRECIP CHANCES. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR QUICK MOISTURE RETURN AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY
GREATER INSTABILITY PLAN TO ERROR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

GAG 55/80/58/86/61 30000
PNC 55/79/56/82/64 40000
HBR 60/80/56/84/64 32000
OKC 60/79/56/82/65 80000
SPS 65/81/60/84/65 33000
DUR 64/80/56/81/60 43000

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
JAMES

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
412 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0345 PM    6 S MERIDIAN              OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/11/01   LOGAN                          PUBLIC REPORT

KT

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0610 PM    8 N CENTRAHOMA            OK   .75 INCH HAIL
05/11/01   COAL                           PUBLIC REPORTS

KT

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
724 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0720 PM    2 ENW CANUTE               OK   .75 INCH HAIL
05/11/01   WASHITA                        PUBLIC REPORT

KT

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
740 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0730 PM    ELK CITY                  OK   2.00 INCH HAIL
05/11/01   BECKHAM                        REPORTED BY ELK CITY
                                          FIRE DEPARTMENT

0735 PM    ELK CITY                  OK   .75 INCH HAIL
05/11/01   BECKHAM                        REPORTED BY ELK CITY
                                          FIRE DEPARTMENT

KT

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
748 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2001

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0720 PM    MADILL                    OK   .88 INCH HAIL
05/11/01   MARSHALL                       REPORTED BY COUNTY
                                          SHERIFFS OFFICE

KT

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