Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2001

NOT MUCH TIME FOR DISCUSSION THIS MRNG WITH SVR WX ALREADY IN
PROGRESS IN PARTS OF THE FA. STG NEG TILT UPR SYS WILL EJECT FROM
THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE WARM FRONT
ALG THE RED RIVER ERLY THIS MRNG CONTS TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD WITH 60+
DEWPOPINT AIR S OF THIS BNDRY. BEST SVR THRT THIS MRNG WILL LIKELY
BE IN VNCTY OF THE WARM FRONT ACRS N TX AND SRN OK ZONES AS SQUALL
INTERSECTS THIS BNDRY. SVR WX THRT WILL SHIFT INTO ERN SECS OF THE
FA LATER TODAY AS WARM FRONT CONTS TO LIFT NWD AND SFC LO
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EWD. WILL CONT FFA INTO THE DAY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE REL FAST HEAVY RAIN STILL A
THREAT...IN ADDITION RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY HAS LEFT FFG VALUES PRETTY LOW. NEXT PROB TO DEAL WITH IN THE
FIRST PD WILL BE STG SWLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE DRY
LINE. DEEPENING SFC LO EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM SWRN KS THIS MRNG INTO
NERN KS BY THE END OF THE DAY. SFC GRAD WILL TIGHTEN ACRS THE FA. IN
ADDITION STG WINDS ALOFT...H8 WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KTS AND H7 WINDS OF
50 TO 70 KTS MAY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTN. WILL INCLUDE WIND ADVY
FOR ALL ZONES ALTHO ERN AREAS WILL NOT LIKELY SEE THE STRONG WINDS
UNTIL AFTN. DAY SHIFT WILL NOT TO MONITOR FOR PSBL UPGRADE TO HI
WIND WRNG. ACTIVITY SHUD BE EAST OFTHE FA BY THIS EVENING SO WILL LV
FCST DRY FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW AND AN APCHG
UPR SYS BRING A THRT OF PRECIP MONDAY WITH A CANADIAN CDFNT EXPECTED
TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. WILL CONT WITH MENTION OF SNOW FOR
NRN SECS TUESDAY WITH RAIN IN THE S. NUMBERS TO FOLLOW LATER.

FCSTID = 2
OKC   64  35  57  41 / 100   0   0  10
HBR   67  34  58  41 /  40   0   0  10
SPS   70  37  63  43 /  80   0   0  10
GAG   59  28  55  35 /  60  10   0  10
PNC   62  32  54  39 / 100   0   0  10
DUA   70  40  62  42 / 100   0   0  10

.OUN...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY
OKZ007>008-012>013-018>020-023>032-037>048-050>052.
     WIND ADVISORY TODAY OKZ004>052.
TX...FLOOD WATCH TTHIS MORNING TXZ086-089-090.
     WIND ADVISORY TODAY TXZ083>090.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
318 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2001

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0256 AM    MANGUM                    OK   .88 INCH HAIL
02/24/01   GREER                          SHERIFF DEPT.

FM

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241500-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
630 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2001

TODAYS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY TO
KINGFISHER TO LAWTON AND VERNON...TEXAS.  THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF A HOLDENVILLE TO COALGATE
TO ATOKA AND DURANT LINE.   THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF TORNADOES IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.

.DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER NEW
MEXICO WILL LIFT OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WHILE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTENSIFIES
AND MOVES EAST.  STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.  THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE
DRYLINE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THIS MORNING
INTO A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  AS STORMS BECOME MORE SURFACE
BASED...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...THE THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL INCREASE.  LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS...ESPECIALLY STORMS
THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR STORM SPOTTING ACTIVATION THIS MORNING.

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