Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
300 AM CDT SUN JUN 03 2001

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACING DOWNSTREAM LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT NEARING THE ERN SEABOARD. UPSTREAM
LOW WOUND UP OVER DEN REGION...WITH WARM FRONT STRETCHING SE DOWN TO
NEW VICINITY.

UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MEANDER AND STRENGTHEN IN THE SERN
PLAINS REGION...EVENTUALLY DRAGGING WARM FRONT UP INTO THE CWA 00-
06Z. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL AT BEST THRU 00Z...ALTHOUGH LOW-
LEVEL FORCING BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY EXPECT A TONGUE OF SEMI-DEEP MOISTURE TO PRECEDE THIS
BOUNDARY AND FEEL SMALL POPS FROM BNA-W RUNNING IN ZONES STILL
WARRANTED.

WARM FRONT SHOULD BE STRETCHING ACROSS THE CWA AROUND 06Z. 06-
12Z...INSTABILITY INDICES ETC. ON FCST SOUNDINGS GOING WAY UP
...RESPONDING TO CWA SHIFTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. WHILE
INDICES BECOMING QUITE FAVORABLE...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND JET
CONTRIBUTIONS SEEMINGLY MUCH MORE FAVORABLE N OF THE AREA IN THE
SERN OH VALLEY...NOT TO MENTION GOOD MOISTURE AND THETA-E ADVECTION.
CHANCES FOR PRECIP PRETTY GOOD TONIGHT BUT OVERALL...CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE NOT THAT GREAT. LOCALLY SEVERE MORE IN LINE AND
WILL EXPECT TO LEAVE CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN ONGOING FCST.

WARM FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER N ON MONDAY...PUSHING FEATURES FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FURTHER OUT OF THE PICTURE. MODELS EVEN
HINTING AT SLIGHT DRY SLOTTING SCENARIO AND WITH NO GOOD FORCING
IN THE REGION...BELIEVE POPS RUNNING IN CURRENT PACKAGE TOO HIGH.
BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE PLATEAU MONDAY...TO THE W OF THERE...
SLIGHT POPS SEEMINGLY MORE IN LINEy.

BNA 78/65/87/68 2622
CSV 73/61/80/64 1533

07
.BNA...NONE.

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075>080-093>097-041030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2001

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...

THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL RETURN AS A WARM FRONT AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MIDSTATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WILL MAINLY BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.

THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL RESIDE
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ALOFT WILL TRACK THESE
STORMS TOWARD MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FURTHERMORE...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND RISING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDSTATE.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG...AND THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS.

NO OTHER FORM OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL OCCUR.

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTERS MAY BE NEED|ED LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

DICKSON 15