Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1005 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2001

WELL...MORNING SOUNDING DENOTES PLENTY OF KINEMATICS...BUT NOT
MUCH THERMODYNAMICS...YET. THE SWEAT INDEX CAME IN AT 355...0-3 KM
SRH OF 600 M2/S2...AND THE 0-6 STORM MOTION IS 34 KTS AND 30
DEGREES RIGHT OF THE AVERAGE WIND. THE K INDEX IS 34...BUT THE
LIFTED INDEX IS 0....AND NO CAPE TO SPEAK OF.

LATEST RUC AND MSAS LOOP HAS 1000-850 THETA E RIDGE WITH LEADING
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA. CELL IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY BOWED OUT AND SHOWED
50 KTS AT 4000 FT...AND RADAR OPERATOR ISSUED A SVRBNA.

MAIN LOW IS WRAPPED TIGHT OVER THE MO/NE BORDER...WITH AN ATTACHED
COLD FRONT FROM LIT INTO ERN TX. FOR THE MOMENT...PRE-FRONTAL
SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO RACE ALONG ERN MS & WRN AL...WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE SQUALL LINE. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE WIND DAMAGE FOR OUR CWA...BUT ISOLATED IN
NATURE.  IN ALABAMA...THE THREAT IS TORNADIC IN NATURE...AND THERE
THREAT IS MUCH GREATER.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE...AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCREASES...
MAINLY FROM 20Z-02Z.

FOR THE MEANTIME...PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE MAIN STORY WITH MOST
OBSERVATIONS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT AND GUSTY RANGE. ILL UPDATE THE
ZONES TO ADDRESS WIND ISSUES.

.BNA...TORNADO WATCH FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 TIL 11 AM

JDG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE,TN
1040 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2001

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0910 AM    CLARKSVILLE               TN   WIND DAMAGE
11/24/01   MONTGOMERY                     LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A
                                          POWER LINE DOWN IN
                                          CLARKSVILLE

JBW

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075>080-093>097-251130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1143 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2001

...VERY WINDY TODAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL 4 PM FOR MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...

THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND...WILL KEEP A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 35
MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. DRIVERS OF CAMPERS...TRAILERS...AND
TRACTOR TRAILER RIGS SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS...
ESPECIALLY WHEN DRIVING ALONG I 40...AND HIGHWAY 64.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. DUE TO VERY VIGOROUS WINDS IN THE LOWEST 5000 FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 50 MPH...AND A FEW WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ALONG AND EAST OF A
SPRINGFIELD TO NASHVILLE TO COLUMBIA TO LAWRENCEBURG LINE FROM NOON
TO 600 PM.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ACTIVATION OF SOME EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTERS IS
LIKELY...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

JDG