Severe Thunderstorm Warning 223, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
230 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2001

SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN CARBONDALE AND PADUCAH SLIDING
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS AT ROLLA MISSOURI(IN
CENTRAL MISSOURI) HAVE ONLY RECENTLY BEGUN TO DIMINISH.

LARGE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A TROUGH IN THE
GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL US FROM MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. A SLENDER H5 RIDGE IS SEEN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WITH A WEAK TROUGH JUST OFF THE EAST COAST.

MODELS BRING THE SOUTHERN (WEAKER) PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A BIT A WEAK RE-ENFORCEMENT
ON TUESDAY. VARIOUS OTHER WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW ARE NOTED
BEYOND TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT ON SAT AND SUN NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE WEAK H5 TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THE
SURFACE SUFFER FROM SOME DISCORD...MAINLY IN SURFACE WIND FIELD.
IT APPEARS THEY AGREE ON THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY...BUT DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER THAT. THE ETA MAINTAINS
A SOUTHWEST WIND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUE MORNING WITH THE NGM AND
AVN SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY. THEY DO SEEM TO AGREE ON THE SECOND
SURGE MOVING IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALBEIT THE ETA A
BIT SLOWER. THE AVN PUSHES THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AS FAR
SOUTH AS NORTHERN INDIANA AND THEN PUSHES IT EASTWARD. THIS KEEPS
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH MONDAY AND DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING.
WILL MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
SECOND SURGE MOVES THROUGH.

BNA EB 070/088 068/088 067 18431
CSV EB 066/084 064/084 062 18442

.BNA...NONE.

JLM

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