Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
200 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2001

EARLY AFTERNOON...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS WEST TN
INTO THE MIDSTATE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/ OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN
COLD FRONT STILL FROM SOUTH MO TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST OK. FIRST LINE
OF STORMS WILL CROSS MID TN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
PROBABLY WITH LESS SEVERITY. MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MID TN LATE TONIGHT...SLOWLY EXITING OUR
COVERAGE AREA AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR MAINLY MORNING
SHOWERS FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE SLOW TO DECREASE...SO LOOK FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL AFTERNOON...THEN SLOW DECREASE IN
CLOUDINESS.

UPPER PATTERN NEXT FEW DAYS WILL FEATURE AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGH
FROM GREAT LAKES...SOUTH ACROSS TN. COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT. A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS...AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

PRELIM FORECAST...
BNA EB 066/080 061/082 063 8300
CSV WB 064/076 056/078/ 056 8500

.BNA...NONE.

SH

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075>080-093>097-212100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1159 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2001

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

AT HIGH NOON...A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM INDIANAPOLIS TO
LITTLE ROCK. THIS TROUGH HAS INITIATED A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS. THE LINE
IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A STRONG TO SEVERE SQUALL LINE AND
MOVE ACROSS...MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS VERY UNSTABLE. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR THE STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
50 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER WILL LIKELY ISSUE
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

PRIME TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 200 PM TO 900 PM CDT.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SAINT LOUIS TO TULSA. THE
FRONT IS CREEPING SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA. DUE TO THE SLOWNESS OF THE
FRONT...STORMS WILL TRACK OVER THE SAME AREA REPEATEDLY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN A HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAIN...HOWEVER
SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PONDING OF AREA ROADWAYS
TONIGHT.

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS WILL BE NEEDED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE.

FOR THE LATEST IN WEATHER INFORMATION...MONITOR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS...OR THE NASHVILLE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BNA.
GORDaON