Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
306 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2001

PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH
WED...RAINFALL...TEMPS...AND WINDS AS A MAJOR CYCLONE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.

IN THE SHORT TERM...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR FROM AMA N.E. TO TOP
AT 850 MB WAS UNDERESTIMATED BY MODELS.  ETA AGAIN SEEMS TO LOSE
SOME OF THE MOISTURE WHILE AVN REMAINS MOIST.  THIS AIR ADVECTING
NWD UNDER A SERIES OF RIPPLES IN THE UPPER JET HAS RESULTED IN
REPEAT TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND SLOWED TIEH NWD ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT.  AS THIS PROCESS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH UPPER DIFL LIKELY
INCREASING AHEAD OF MAIN LOW OVERNIGHT...THE PROSPECTS FOR SVR WX
WILL CONTINUE.  ALSO THINK THE MODELS WILL REMAIN TOO FAST WITH THE
WARM FRONT.  FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...BUT STORMS SHOW FAST
MOVEMENT...SO WILL NOT HEADLINE FOR NOW.

ETA AND AVN ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON POSITIONS OF LOW AT SFC
AND ALOFT THRU 36 HRS...WITH ETA FASTER AFTER THAT.  DESPITE THESE
SIMILARITIES...THE AVN IS FASTER IN LIFTING THE DRY SLOT INTO OUR
AREA WEDNESDAY.  WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE SOLUTION.

WIND WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM WED AND WED NIGHT AS THE STRONG LOW
MOVES THROUGH ERN NEB THEN MN.  GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS
TIGHT AS LAST SYSTEM...SO FAR.  WINDS SHOULD DIE OUT GRADUALLY ON
THU AS WINDS ARE COUNTERACTED BY A DYING GRADIENT.

THU. NIGHT LOOKS COOL AND DRY PER GUIDANCE...WITH NO BIG CHANGES TO
EXTENDED.

.OMA...NONE.
POLLACK