Severe Thunderstorm Warning 461, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
200 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2001

NEAR TERM CONCERN IS RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTN SHOWED A STRONG LOW PRES CENTER
OVER SWRN NE.  DRYLINE EXTENDED SOUTH INTO W TX.  CDFNT STARTING TO
BECOME A BIT MORE DEFINED FROM NWRN MN INTO THE LOW AND THEN
BACK INTO CO.  12Z ETA MODEL MOVES SFC LOW INTO SWRN MN BY 06Z AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY KICKS OUT.  JET DYNAMICS ARE ALSO PLAYING A PART
IN OUR WEATHER.  UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED ONE
JET SEGMENT FROM MT NEWD INTO CANADA...AND ANOTHER OVER THE PNHDL
OF TX.  12Z MODELS HAVE NOT AFFECTIVELY INITIALIZE THE SRN JET
MAX.  18Z 250 MB PROFILER WINDS SHOWED MAX VALUE OF 95 KTS AROUND
HILLSBORO KS.  LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDINESS OVER THE WRN PART OF KS INTO SWRN NE...WITH
TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.  SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDINESS FROM SWRN NE INTO WRN KS...AND CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN THINNING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE INTO NRN KS.  MAIN THREATS
ARE HAIL AND WIND...BUT TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY
TO OUR W AND SW.

CDFNT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z WED...BUT
MAYBE NOT IN FAR SWRN IA.  THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN SHOULD
ALSO END BY AROUND THAT TIME AS Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE INDICATES
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  THE BULK OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE GONE BY
NOON...BUT SOME 850 MB MOISTURE LINGERS.  WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD
COVER AROUND EARLY...THEN IT SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.  CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WED NGT TO THU PERIOD...AND WILL NOT DEVIATE
MUCH FROM NGM MOS.

MRF AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SPEED OF SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND WRN PLAINS BY 12Z FRI...AT LEAST OVER
THE CONUS.  MRF IS A BIT STRONGER/DEEPER...BUT 500 MB PATTERN IS
VERY SIMILAR.  SO...HAVE INCREASED CHANCE OF PCPN FOR FRI.
AGREEMENT REMAINS DECENT INTO THE SAT/SUN TIMEFRAME...AS LONGWAVE
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.  MRF
REMAINS A BIT STRONGER...AND EVEN STARTS TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW
NEAR THE ND/MN BORDER BY 12Z SUN.  DURING THE SAME TIME...ECMWF
HAS A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC INTO CA.  BOTH MODELS
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN WAVE NUMBER BY 12Z MON.  CONFIDENCE OF
4-7 DAY FCST ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY.

.OMA...NONE.
MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
548 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0533 PM    CEDAR RAPIDS              NE   TORNADO
10/09/01   BOONE                          REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
708 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0645 PM    CEDAR RAPIDS              NE   1.25 INCH HAIL
10/09/01   BOONE                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0654 PM    2 NW DUNCAN               NE   TORNADO
10/09/01   PLATTE                         REPORTED BY MEDIA.

0659 PM    CEDAR RAPIDS              NE   1 INCH HAIL
10/09/01   BOONE                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
744 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0700 PM    1 N ST EDWARD             NE   1 INCH HAIL
10/09/01   BOONE                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

0703 PM    2 E MONROE                NE   TORNADO
10/09/01   PLATTE                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0725 PM    1 N ST EDWARD             NE   .75 INCH HAIL
10/09/01   BOONE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
802 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0750 PM    2 W MADISON               NE   1 INCH HAIL
10/09/01   MADISON                        REPORTED BY COOPERATIVE
                                          OBSERVER.

0752 PM    1 E HUMPHREY              NE   TORNADO
10/09/01   PLATTE                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

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