Severe Thunderstorm Warning 419, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
215 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGES -- PRECIPITATION CHANCES

SYNOPSIS -- FRONT IS NOT MAKING VERY FAST PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.  A WEAK WAVE AHEAD OF THE
STRONGER SHORT WAVE NOW ENTERING WESTERN KANSAS HAS BEEN GENERATING
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM BIE NORTHEAST THROUGH OMA TO HNR AND
RDA.  ANOTHER STRONG WAVE IS DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO WYOMING
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW OVER MANITOBA.  THIS WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 120-140 KNOT JET CORE AND HEIGHT FALLS OF 18
DECAMETERS AT TFX THIS MORNING.

FORECAST -- THE FIRST MINOR WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST HAS BEEN
GENERATING OCCASIONALLY STRONG BUT NOT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA.  THERE HAS BEEN A
STRONG PUSH SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS AT
THE SURFACE BUT LITTLE EFFECTIVE PUSH FURTHER EAST.  THE NEXT
CONVECTION GROUP APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED WITH THE SHORT WAVE IN
WESTERN KANSAS.  SOME ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AHEAD BUT CLOUDS IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WOULD INDICATE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PUSHING BACK NORTH
AGAINST THE FRONT.

ACTIVITY ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.  ASSUMING THE ETA IS CORRECT THE WAVE
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COOLER AIR SHOULD POUR
IN BEHIND.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL CONTINUE SOUTH SOUTHEAST.  ALL THREE MODELS WANT
TO GENERATE A LOW ALOFT WITH THE SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND
DETAILS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE.  NET RESULT IS THAT IT WILL BE
RELUCTANT TO COME OUT...AND GET TIME ENOUGH TO GET SOME MOISTURE IN
AHEAD OF IT.   TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH THE NEXT BEST
THREAT OF PRECIP AFTER TONIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

CHANCE OF PRECIP WED AND THU IN THE EXTENDED.

.OMA...NONE.
POWERS

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-072230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1114 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2001

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.  THE AREA MOST THREATENED IS SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM FAIRBURY NEBRASKA TO HARLAN IOWA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.  THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  A STRONG SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING PROVIDING GOOD SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWN BURST WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS.  IN ADDITION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY OCCUR.

POWERS