Severe Thunderstorm Warning 257, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
310 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2001

FORECAST CONCERN RMNS TSTM AND SVR THREAT INTO THU AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL.  ETA HAS BEEN A LTL MORE CONSISTENT AND SLOWER WITH UPR
SYS AND AVN APPEARS TO BE A LTL TOO FAST.  WL GENERALLY GO WITH THE
ETA/MESOETA.

SHORT TERM...MESO LOW HAS SHIFTED N TO NR YKN AT 20Z WITH CDFNT
ENTERING OAX EXTREME NW COUNTIES W OF OFK.  BEST LOW LVL CONVERGENCE
AND THICKEST CU FIELDS WERE ALONG AND JUST AHD OF BNDRY IN NERN NEBR
AND SERN SD.  WITH 60KT 300 MB JET FCST INTO NERN NEBR BY 00Z THIS
EVENING...INITIALLY THIS AREA APPEARS MOST AT RISK FOR SVR WX.  WL
PRBLY JUST GO SCT IN TSTM FCST TNGT W/NO POPS ACRS THE NERN ZONES
AND KEEP HIGH POPS REST OF ZONES UNLESS CONVECTION DVLPS FTHR S BFR
ZONE ISSUANCE TIME.  WITH UPR LOW TO OUR W NOT MOVG EWD MUCH
OVRNGT...SFC LOW DVLPMNT IN SERN CO THIS EVENING SHOULD KEEP BNDRY
FM GOING MUCH FTHR E TNGT ALTHO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD CONTAMINATE
SFC FNTS BY MORNING.  AS 45-70 850 MB JET...SPEED DEPENDS ON
MODEL...ETA IS THE STRONGEST...DVLPS ON E SIDE OF SFC LOW TO OUR
SE...STRONGER CNVCTN AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT COULD SHIFT AWAY FM NERN
ZONES.  SPCLY WITH HIGHER 850 MB THETA E AIR FEEDING INTO BNDRY OVR
CNTRL NEBR.  ALSO WITH NO WIDESPREAD SIGFNT RAINS MUCH OF OUR CWA WL
REFRAIN FM FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM.  FAR SERN ZONES RMN THE FARTHEST
REMOVED FM UPPER JET AND LOW LVL BOUNDARIES AND WL KEEP POPS LOWEST
THERE BUT STILL ABV FWC NUMBERS.  RAISED LOWS A TOUCH A FEW AREAS.

WITH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF UPR SYS AND ASSOCD SFC FNT...CWA RMNS IN
CONVECTIVE THREAT ON THU WITH PSBL SVR WX AGAIN FAR E/NE.  WL ADJUST
FCST TO MENTION TSTMS ALL ZONES W/HIGHEST POPS E/NE.  SOME COOLER
AIR COULD OCCLUDE ARND S SIDE OF SYS BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO ALLOW READINGS TO REACH FWC.  WITH AVN TOO FAST MAV
TEMPS LOOK TOO COOL.

WL KEEP CHC OF SHOWERS W AND TSTMS E THU EVENING AND ALSO INCREASED
POPS.  FRI LOOKS DRY.  TEMPS THU NGT MAYBE A LTL BLO FWC.  FOR
FRI...STG W COMPONENT TO LOW LVL WINDS AND PT TO MO SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM NICELY WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF THEM
SURPASSING GUID.

.OMA...NONE.
POLLACK

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