Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
145 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2001

MAIN FCST CHALLENGES ARE TSRA THREAT AND TEMPS THRU THE PD.

LINE OF TSRA FM SW MN TO NE NEB IS CONTG TO MOV SE INTO MDTLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  IN ADDITION...TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED FURTHER S OVER
S CNTRL NE IN MDTLY STG LOW LVL WAA ZONE.  NLG PROFILER INDICATING
40KT LLJ ACROSS THE AREA FEEDING THE ACTIVITY.  IN THE SHORT TERM
THE MDLS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE LINE TO THE NW AND THE
NEW DEVELOPMENT TO THE W WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ESE AND AFFECT MOST
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA INTO THE MID MORNING HRS.  BEST SVR
THREAT IS TO THE NE OF THE CWA...HOWEVER MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND
WNDS ARE PSBL FOR A CPL MORE HRS AFTER WHICH A GENERAL WEAKENENING
TREND IS EXPECTED AS LLJ VEERS DURG THE MORNING.  COORD WITH SPC AND
WILL ALLOW CURRENT SVR WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 07Z THOUGH MARGINALLY SVR
ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE FOR A CPL MORE HRS.

BEYOND THE SHORT TERM...TO QUESTION IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION
REDEVELOPS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT LINGER FROM CURRENT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  UPPER FORCING IS RATHER MINIMAL AND CAPPING
WILL PROBABLY BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL AS UPPER HGHTS BLD BY LATE AFTN
AND EARLY EVE.  WL PROBABLY GO WITH A MORNING PD SCTD TSRA...THEN
KEEP LOW POPS PER GOING FCST IN DURG THE AFTN HRS...SPCLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS NOTED.

TNGT...THE ETA PROGS A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER E CNTRL NE AND SW IA
EARLY.  AS CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE OVER SW SD IN RESPONSE
TO SHRTWV ENERGY EJECTING NE OUT OF WY AND INTO THE WRN DKTS...THE
BOUNDARY AND GREATEST INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO SHIFT N INTO NE NEB
LATER IN THE NIGHT.  INCREASES LOW LVL WAA OVER THE CWA THRU THE
NIGHT...BUT AGAIN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER AREA AND CIN WILL BE
INCREASING AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD.  WILL GO WITH SML POPS OVR THE
NRN PTNS OF THE CWA BUT LEAVE THE S DRY.

ON MON...SFC WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SRN SD. WITH A CDFNT
TRAILING SE INTO E CNTRL AND S CTNRL NE BY EVE.  AS LLJ INCREASES
MON EVENING...THE ETA IS QUITE BULLISH IN DEVELOPING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA.  THE CIN WILL BE DEC THRU THE AFTN
AND EVE HRS AS THE SHRTWV FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE...SO COMNVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS QUITE PSBL.  WILL GO WITH MDT POPS MON NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE AVN LIFTS THE FNTL BACK TO THE N TUES IN
RESPONSE TO ADDL SHRTWV ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE WRN U.S. AND
INCREASING AMPLIFICATION DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CNTRL PLNS.  WILL KEEP
THREAT OF TSRA PER GOING FCST FOR TUES AND WED...BUT WILL LIKELY
BUMP UP TEMPS FOR WED AS COOLING TREND LIKELY TO BE DELAYED UNTIL
THURS.

.OMA...NONE.

SKERRITT

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-100900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
855 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2001

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEED TONIGHT OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO FUEL THE STORMS...SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

GW