Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
243 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2001

MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS ARE CHCS OF PRECIP AND HIGH TEMPS ON THUR.

QSTNRY FNT EXTDS FM NR GCK TO CNK TO BIE AT 18Z.  AOME SFC CNVGNC
HAS BENN NOTED ALG THE FNT AND WL BE WHR FOCUS FOR CNVTV DVLPMT IS
XPCD BY LATE AFTN INTO TNGT.  AMS S OF BNDRY IS UNSTBL WITH LTST
LAPS SFC CAPES ABOUT 4000 J/KG.  SHEAR IS WK ALG THIS BNDRY...BUT
SOME STG STMS MAY DVLP AS CAP BKS.  WL PUT HIGH POPS TNGT IN SRN ZNS.

FURTHER TO THE W...UPR SHRTWV TROF OVR MT IS FCST TO MOV E DURG THE
NXT 24 TO 36 HRS.  VIGOROUS SFC CDFNT IS FCST TO MOV ACRS AREA DURG
THE NGT INTO THU MRNG.  SVR THREAT DOES APPR MINIMAL WITH THIS FNT
DUE TO LMTD MSTR AND INSTBY.  HWVR...SOME FROTOGENETICAL FORCING IS
INDCD ALG FNT AS IT COMES THROUGH ERN NEB...THERE MAY BE AN ISOLD
SVR RPT.  POPS WL BE LOW FOR THIS EVENT.

TEMPS TMW WL BE MUCH COOLER AS FNT MOVS ACRS. SOME CLDS ARE LIKELY
OVR SERN NEB FOR MOST OF THE DY...WHICH MAY KEEP SFC TEMPS DWN.  WL
GO WITH MID 70S FOR OFK AND OMA...WITH LWR 70S FURTHER S DUE TO
CLDS.

CRISP...COOL ON THUR NGT WITH LOWS INT HE 40S.

ON FRI...AREA WILL BE UNDER SFC RDG AND CONTD COOL ADVCTN...SO WILL
GO WITH HIGHS PREDOMINATELY IN THE LWR 70S.

IN THE EXTDD...WL LEAN MORE TO AVN MDL SOLN WITH NXT CHC OF PRECIP
ON SAT.

SMITH

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-162300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1208 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2001

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN KANSAS WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS PART
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA AFTER 5 PM.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING ISOLATED REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT.  SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

SMITH

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-171100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
445 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2001

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH.  THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.  UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE
RATHER WEAK AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
OVERNIGHT...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER
DISORGANIZED.  NEVERTHELESS...THE DEGREE ON INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING ISOLATED
REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THIREATS BEING
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

SKERRITT