Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
310 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2001

FORECAST CONCERN CONTS TO BE CONVECTIVE THREAT AND POTENTIAL OF
HEAVY RAINS THRU THU.

SHORT TERM...18Z OAX SOUNDING SHOWD MSTR WAS VERY SHALLOW SO DESPITE
SFC DWPTS AROUND 60/LOWER 60S...USING MEAN LYR YIELDED A VERY SMALL
CAPE...A LTL OVR 100 J/KG.  MSTR WAS DEEPER AT TOP...CU WAS ALSO
STARTING TO SHOW UP OVR ERN KS/WRN MO...AND THIS MSTR SHOULD CONT TO
BE TRANSPORTED N.  THIS SHOULD HELP WKN CAP ALNG WK CDFNT WHICH AT
20A WAS APPROACHING A YKN-ODX LINE.  QUESTIONS WERE HOW LONG AND HOW
FAR SW AND HOW WOULD PREFRONTAL TROF AFFECT THINGS AS IT HAS PUSHED
THRU NERN NEBR DROPPG DWPTS INTO UPR 40S.  DIURNAL BACKING OF SFC
WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW PREFRONTAL TROF TO WASH OUT...BUT
WOULD DELAY ONSET A LTL.  NEXT...ONCE CONVECTION GOT GOING...HOW FAR
S...IF AT ALL...WOULD IT PUSH FNT SWD.  STILL EVEN IF DEEPER MSTR
DOESNT MAKE IT TO FNT TIL LATE EVENING...THERE COULD STILL BE HIGH
BASED TSTMS DVLPG ALNG FNT LATE THIS AFTN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
LATEST RUC NOW POINTS TO CNTRL NEBR.  12Z MODELS WERE CONSISTENT
WITH THEIR EARLIER RUNS...WHICH UNFORTUNATELY MEANT RTHR LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN FNTL PSN AND QPF.  MOST NOTABLE WAS QPF DIFFERENCE
BTWN AVN AND ETA/NGM EVEN THO SFC FTRS FM AVN WERE SIMILAR TO NGM.
AVN CONTD TO HOLD FRONT UP TNGT AND KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA CAPPED
KEEPING PCPN N OF FCST AREA OVERNGT.  IF CONVECTION WOULD INDEED
DVLP INTO NERN NEBR AND PUSH FNT INTO THE ECNTRL ZONES...A
CONTINUING FEED OF BTR 850 MB DWPTS WOULD STILL GIVE A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.  USING COMPROMISE BTWN AVN AND ETA
WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY HIGH BUT WL NOT GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ATTM.  WL KEEP THE THREAT OF SVR IN FCST ALSO FOR MOST AREAS TNGT.
PREV FCST/GUID TEMPS SIMILAR AND LOOK GOOD.

FOR THU...EVEN FTHR S ETA BRINGS WRM WEDGE AT 850 MB INTO SERN NEBR
WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TDA.  RAISED HIGHS CNTRL/S TO GUID OR
A LTL WARMER.  ALL MODELS POINTED TO PSBL MORNING CONVECTION NERN
NEBR BFR FNT BECOMES MORE ACTIVE IN THE AFTN ACRS THE S.  SO UPPED
POPS N IN LINE WITH SRN ZONES...ALTHO STGEST SHOULD BE ACRS THE S
LATE AFTN INTO EVENING.  MCS THAT DVLPS THU NGT SHOULD PUSH FNT S OF
AREA BY EARLY FRI BUT WL CARRY SMALL POPS FRI AM.  WILL USE COMP IN
GUID TEMPS FOR HIGHS.

.OMA...NONE
CHERMOK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1047 PM CDT WED MAY 09 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0925 PM    OMAHA                     NE   .75 INCH HAIL
05/09/01   DOUGLAS                        REPORTED BY PUBLIC.
                                          108TH AND FORT STREET.

0937 PM    7 NW NORTH BEND           NE   .75 INCH HAIL
05/09/01   DODGE                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

0948 PM    12 NE SCHUYLER            NE   1 INCH HAIL
05/09/01   COLFAX                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

1012 PM    FREMONT                   NE   .75 INCH HAIL
05/09/01   DODGE                          REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

1020 PM    FREMONT                   NE   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/09/0n1   DODGE                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
945 PM CDT WED MAY 09 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0725 PM    TURIN                     IA   60 MPH TSTM GUST
05/09/01   MONONA                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

0749 PM    FREMONT ARPT              NE   60 MPH TSTM GUST
05/09/01   DODGE                          REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

0853 PM    5 N ARLINGTON             NE   WIND DAMAGE
05/09/01   WASHINGTON                     REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL
                                          TWO TREES DOWN.
                                          3/4 INCH HAIL.

0906 PM    3 W BENNINGTON            NE   .88 INCH HAIL
05/09/01   DOUGLAS                        REPORTED BY HAM
                                          RADIO OPERATOR.
                                          HIGHWAY 31 AND BENNINGTON
                                          ROAD.  PEA AND NICKEL SIZED
                                          HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

0932 PM    OMAHA                     NE   .75 INCH HAIL
05/09/01   DOUGLAS                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.
                                          50TH AND CORBY.

0934 PM    4 S FT CALHOUN            NE   .75 INCH HAIL
05/09/01   WASHINGTON                     REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1134 PM CDT WED MAY 09 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1030 PM    NICKERSON                 NE   1 INCH HAIL
05/09/01   DODGE                          REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.
RAINFALL 2.72
                                          IN 2 1/2 HOURS.

1059 PM    5 N ELKHORN               NE   1 INCH HAIL
05/09/01   DOUGLAS                        REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

1115 PM    BLAIR                     NE   1 INCH HAIL
05/09/01   WASHINGTON                     REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

1125 PM    BLAIR                     NE   65 MPH TSTM GUST
05/09/01   WASHINGTON                     REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.
NICKEL SIZE
                                          HAIL.

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