Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
215 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2001

ALL 12Z MODELS TENDING TO SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT  ACROSS
AREA TNGT INTO WED WITH THE AVN AND NGM SLOWER OF MAJOR OPERATIONAL
MODELS. BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT OF FRONT ALONG WITH OVERALL ETA
BETTER TRACK RECORD OF HANDLING OF COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL FOLLOW
NCEP LEAD AND LEAN MORE TOWARD ETA COLD FRONTAL POSITION THROUGH
AROUND 48 HRS. AS CAP IS BROKEN ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BY
BY AROUND 20Z TO 21Z ALONG FRONT FROM BETWEEN KODX AND KAUH TO NEAR
KSUX. CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY WORK SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT. WILL LIKELY RETAIN SOME POPS N OF FNT BUT LESS RISK SGFNT WX.
BESIDES THE THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH CDFNT WITH SGFNT
CAPE AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN DURING NIGHT IN EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW TENDS TO VEER WITH INFLUX OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

TRENDING TOWARD ETA MODEL BELIEVE MAIN POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS AND AND
EMBEDDED TSTMS ON WED INTO WED EVE WILL BE MAINLY IN SE NEB INTO SW
IA. HOWEVER CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING ACROSS ENTIRE AREA AGAIN LATER
WED NIGHT INTO THU AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX INCREASES INTO THE
SFC BOUNDARY AS IT TRIES TO LIFT NWD. IN ADDITION SWLY UPPER FLOW
OVERRUNNING COOL DOME ALONG WITH DISTURBANCES COMING OUT OF UPPER
LOW OVER SW U.S. WILL HELP GENERATE GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
EMBEDDED TSTMS.

BEYOND 48HRS ETA MAY BE SHIFTING UPPER LOW A BIT FAST AND AVN MODEL
TREND BETTER IN EXTENDED PERIODS. EXTENDED LOOKS QUITE UNSETTLED AND
WET THROUGH WEEKEND.

.OMA...NONE.
WIESE
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
913 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0646 PM    MONDAMIN                  IA   .75 INCH HAIL
05/01/01   HARRISON                       REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0646 PM    MONDAMIN                  IA   .75 INCH HAIL
05/01/01   HARRISON                       REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0655 PM    3 E MONDAMIN              IA   TORNADO
05/01/01   HARRISON                       REPORTED BY MEDIA.

0656 PM    3 E MONDAMIN              IA   1 INCH HAIL
05/01/01   HARRISON                       REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

0704 PM    2 E MONDAMIN              IA   TORNADO
05/01/01   HARRISON                       REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0705 PM    MAGNOLIA                  IA   TORNADO
05/01/01   HARRISON                       REPORTED BY MEDIA.

0732 PM    PERSIA                    IA   TORNADO
05/01/01   HARRISON                       REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

0748 PM    3 N WOODBINE              IA   .88 INCH HAIL
05/01/01   HARRISON                       REPORTED dBY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1007 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0920 PM    PETERSBURG                NE   .88 INCH HAIL
05/01/01   BOONE                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0939 PM    WISNER                    NE   60 MPH TSTM GUST
05/01/01   CUMING                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-021000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1054 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2001

STORM SPOTTERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  SPOTTERS MAY ALSO BE NEEDED IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
OVER A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT.  THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO...ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA.  THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

LATE TONIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD.  THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.  THIS
WOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH...BUT THESE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SqEVERE LIMITS AFTER 3 AM.

POLLACK

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