Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
215 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2001

ALL 12Z MODELS TENDING TO SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT  ACROSS
AREA TNGT INTO WED WITH THE AVN AND NGM SLOWER OF MAJOR OPERATIONAL
MODELS. BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT OF FRONT ALONG WITH OVERALL ETA
BETTER TRACK RECORD OF HANDLING OF COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL FOLLOW
NCEP LEAD AND LEAN MORE TOWARD ETA COLD FRONTAL POSITION THROUGH
AROUND 48 HRS. AS CAP IS BROKEN ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BY
BY AROUND 20Z TO 21Z ALONG FRONT FROM BETWEEN KODX AND KAUH TO NEAR
KSUX. CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY WORK SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT. WILL LIKELY RETAIN SOME POPS N OF FNT BUT LESS RISK SGFNT WX.
BESIDES THE THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH CDFNT WITH SGFNT
CAPE AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN DURING NIGHT IN EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW TENDS TO VEER WITH INFLUX OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

TRENDING TOWARD ETA MODEL BELIEVE MAIN POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS AND AND
EMBEDDED TSTMS ON WED INTO WED EVE WILL BE MAINLY IN SE NEB INTO SW
IA. HOWEVER CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING ACROSS ENTIRE AREA AGAIN LATER
WED NIGHT INTO THU AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX INCREASES INTO THE
SFC BOUNDARY AS IT TRIES TO LIFT NWD. IN ADDITION SWLY UPPER FLOW
OVERRUNNING COOL DOME ALONG WITH DISTURBANCES COMING OUT OF UPPER
LOW OVER SW U.S. WILL HELP GENERATE GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
EMBEDDED TSTMS.

BEYOND 48HRS ETA MAY BE SHIFTING UPPER LOW A BIT FAST AND AVN MODEL
TREND BETTER IN EXTENDED PERIODS. EXTENDED LOOKS QUITE UNSETTLED AND
WET THROUGH WEEKEND.

.OMA...NONE.
WIESE
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
537 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0403 PM    ONAWA                     IA   1 INCH HAIL
05/01/01   MONONA                         REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

0403 PM    ONAWA                     IA   60 MPH TSTM GUST
05/01/01   MONONA                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0515 PM    TEKAMAH                   NE   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/01/01   BURT                           REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.