Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
236 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2001

IN THE SHORT-TERM...MRX RADAR SHOWS A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION ACROSS
THE PLATEAU INTO WESTERN CENTRAL VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEAR AXIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...MSAS AND LAPS SHOWS CAPES AND LIFTED INDICES OF 2000-3000 J/KG
AND -6 TO -9...RESPECTIVELY.  WILL LIKELY KEEP A CHANCE POP GOING
MOST LOCATIONS FOR MAINLY THIS EVENING.  WHERE RAIN OCCURS...
SOME AREAS OF FOG IS ANTICIPATED...SOME LOCALLY DENSE.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN PULLING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR FRIDAY AND THEN MOVING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LIMITED AS BEST DYNAMICS ALOFT MOVES NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MUCH DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MOVES INTO
THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.  ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS MID-
LEVEL WARMING WITH A CAP DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY...SO RETURN
OF DRY WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FCSTID = 15
CHA   69  88  68  90 /  30  50  50   0
TYS   67  86  67  87 /  30  50  50  10
TRI   65  85  65  84 /  30  50  50  20
OQT   67  86  67  87 /  30  50  50  10

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

DH

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-142100-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1011 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2001

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...
HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HELPING TO FOCUS THE
VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST
TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS...HAIL UP
TO DIME SIZE AND TORRENTIAL RAINS.

THE HEAVY RAINS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED PONDING OF LOW LYING AREAS
AND STREET FLOODING.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS WILL NEED TO
KEEP ABREAST OF THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  PLEASE STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR FAVORITE RADIO AND TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER
STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

DH