Special Marine Warning 4, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2001

REMNANTS OF PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERNMOST CWA
AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES BOTH SPAWNING SCATTERED
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH
AHEAD OF FRONT AND WILL INCLUDE SCATTERED POPS THIS EVENING SOUTH
HALF OF FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY EVENING POPS FOR
ORLANDO/CAPE CANAVERAL AREA...AND DRY NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES.
ISOLATED SPOTS OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA MAY SEE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
TOTALS DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS ALONG BOUNDARY WITHIN AREA OF
HIGH PW.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH FROPA TIMING...REACHING NORTHERN CWA A
LITTLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. COOLER/BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH BRUNT OF CAA OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES TODAY BEING
REPLACED BY VALUES NEAR ONE HALF INCH FRIDAY AND APPROACHING ONE
QUARTER INCH OVER THE WEEKEND. LIKEWISE...TEMPS WILL FALL
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH MAXS SOME 15-20 DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FWC/AVN MOS TEMP GUIDANCE SIMILAR...AND STILL SHOWING
MINOR DOWNWARD TREND LATER PERIODS. SUNDAY MORNING MINS LOOK TO BE
THE COLDEST PRIOR TO MODIFYING EFFECTS OF VEERING WINDS.

EXTENDED...AS STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE MOVES EAST TOWARDS MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO ONSHORE
COMPONENT...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WARMTH/MOISTURE TO RETURN BY
MID-WEEK. WILL CONTINUE MODIFICATION TREND OF TEMPS...ALONG WITH
RETURNING CLOUDINESS...AND INCREASING CHANCE FOR COASTAL SHOWERS
SE-MOST COUNTIES. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE COVERAGE AND
TIMING OF SHOWERS AS CONFIDENCE OF MOISTURE RETURN IS GAINED.

MARINE...WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT AND WIND/SEAS RESPOND QUICKLY AS FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. EXTENDED DURATION OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AS N/NE
GRADIENT FLOW HOLDS STRONG INTO NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WX...HIGH CONFIDENCE REGARDING LONG DURATION OF CRITICAL RH
WITH STRONG/GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY ACROSS NORTH HALF OF REGION SO HAVE
UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNING. WILL LEAVE/RAISE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR SPREADS SOUTH DURING THE DAY...AND
DURATION OF CRITICAL RH APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. THREAT FOR
FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...AND WILL RAISE A
WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.

COORDINATED WITH JAX/TBW.

DAB UU 060/072 049/069 045 65-00
MCO UU 062/074 050/071 046 65200
MLB UU 065/076 053/072 050 65300

.MLB...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT FLAGLER BCH-JUPITER
INLET.
    ...RED FLAG WARNING FRIDAY FOR LAKE...VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE...
       ORANGE...OSCEOLA...BREVARD COUNTIES.
    ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY FOR OKEECHOBEE...INDIAN RIVER...
       SAINT LUCIE....AND MARTIN COUNTIES.
    ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES SATURDAY.

PUBLIC/MARINE...SPRATT
AVIATION/FIRE WX...BRAGAW