Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2001

CURRENTLY...LARGE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED FRONTAL
TROF OVER GA/AL/MS PRODUCING A FEW STRONG TSTORMS OVER THE EXTREME
NRN CWA.  WCSB WELL INLAND...ECSB REMAINS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES...
WITH ONLY SLOW INLAND PENETRATION SOUTH OF MLB. LARGE H50 VORT MIN
HAS ANCHORED OVER THE STATE THUS FAR HAS HELD DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
A MINIMUM ALONG THE WCSB. REMNANTS OF TC ALLISON REMAIN POORLY
ORGANIZED S OF LA.

TONIGHT...SIMILAR PATTERN TO LAST NIGHT...BUT LESS COVERAGE WITH
STRONG H50 NVA AND LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.  WILL KEEP SCT POPS OVER
THE COASTAL CWA DUE TO THE LIKELYHOOD OF E/WCSB COLLISION AND STEADY
WRLY STEERING FLOW.  INTERIOR CWA WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISMS ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE BOUNDARY COLLISION OVER THE
ERN MOST PORTIONS OF ORANGE/OSCEOLA/OKEECHOBEE...WILL GO WDLY SCT
EVENING POPS.

MON/TUE...REMNANTS OF TC ALLISON WILL PUSH E/NE INTO THE NE GOMEX
THROUGH MON...BUT THE ATLC RIDGE OVER S FL SHOULD KEEP IT WELL N OF
THE CWA.  SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SHEAR APART OVER SRN AL/GA AS IT MOVES
INTO H85-H50 CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SE U.S.  WILL BREAK UP ZONES TO
REFLECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER THE NRN CWA ON MON AS THE REMNANT
TC MOISTURE/CONVECTION MIGHT KICK OUT A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PROPAGATE INTO THE NRN PENINSULA.  TC REMNANTS WILL KEEP THE ATLC
RIDGE OVER THE FL STRAITS THRU TUE AND MAINTAIN THE W/SWRLY STEERING
FLOW THAT HAS PREVAILED OVER THE CWA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. SCT
AFTN/EVENING POPS WITH HIGHER COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL CWA.

EXTENDED...MRF/NOGAPS MODELS CONTINUE TO DRAW THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS BACK TO THE N WED/THU AS A STRONG S/WV DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS.  MEAN SFC/STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
AS IT DOES...FOCUSING DIURNAL PRECIP OVER THE WRN PENINSULA BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.  WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE WED AS THE
TRANSITION DAY AND SHIFT THE TIMING OF THE DIURNAL PRECIP TO THE
MORNING/AFTN HOURS THU-SUN.

MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS.  AVN/MRF APPARENTLY FOCUS ON AN H50 VORT
AXIS OVER SRN GA AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE A CLOSED LOW FORMING OFF
THE GA COAST TONIGHT.  WILL CONTINUE TO IGNORE...FAVORING ETA
SOLUTION OF A WEAK SFC TROF.  EVEN IF THE AVN/MRF SOLUTION WERE TO
PAN OUT...SYSTEM WOULD DEVELOP TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LOCAL WATERS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
DAB BB 071/091 072/091 072 342
MCO BB 072/092 073/092 073 242
MLB BB 073/091 073/091 074 242   81

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAGAW
AVIATION/FIRE WX...SPRATT
I