Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
240 PM EST SAT MAR 31 2001

CURRENTLY...16Z XMR SOUNDING SHOWS H5 TEMPS HAVE COOLED TO -14C. AIR
MASS MOST UNSTABLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...SOUTH OF OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S. CONVECTION FIRED FIRST ALONG A COUPLE OF E-W
BOUNDARIES LOCATED OVER OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING
EAST. SCATTERED CONVECTION...SOME SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
CONTINUES UNTIL 6 PM.

SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID WEST. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE WESTERLY GRADIENT PRODUCING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS
SHUNT THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND PROMOTE DEEP
LAYER DRYING. COOLING HOWEVER WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH H5. COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT LAST LONG THOUGH AS
SFC HIGH CENTER SETTLES QUICKLY OVER THE PENINSULA MONDAY WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT/MON AND WILL
TREND TOWARD COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.

FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN SUN WITH WIND SPEEDS
EXCEEDING 15 MPH AND RH VALUES FALLING TO 35% OR LESS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN SECTIONS...SO WILL UPGRADE TO RED FLAG THERE. STILL A
QUESTION HOW FAR SOUTH DEEP DRYING WILL GET SO WILL CONTINUE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

EXTENDED...SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY TUE WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF FORECAST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY BACK TO NORMAL
BY MID WEEK AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THIS EVENING...SOME STRONG.
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW INTENSIFIES OFF MID ATLANTIC
COAST. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SUNDAY. WEST WINDS
WILL PROMOTE HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE.

PRELIM...
DAB UU 057/078 046/071 050 2000
MCO UU 060/080 048/075 052 2000
MLB UU 060/081 050/073 054 2000

.MLB...RED FLAG WARNING NORTHERN SECTIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
    ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINDER OF EC FL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PUBLIC/MARINE...KELLY
AVIATION/FIRE WX...SPRATT

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
312000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1133 AM EST SAT MAR 31 2001

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...

SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH COOLING AND DRYING
ALOFT...AND SOME SURFACE HEATING...WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. A THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE KISSIMMEE TO CAPE CANAVERAL. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GREATER THAN 55 MPH. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. MANY AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 4
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. AREAS THAT RECEIVE ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOVEMENT OF
STORMS WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 30 MPH.

STORM SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE IF A WARNING IS ISSUED
FOR YOUR COUNTY.

IF A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES AND YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTDOORS...SEEK
SHELTER IMMEDIATELY IN A STURDY ENCLOSED STRUCTURE. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...TV OR RADIO STATIONS FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS
AVAILABLE AT: HTTP://,WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/HWOFILES/HWOMAIN.HTML

KELLY