Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2001

CURRENTLY...SHEAR AXIS DROPPING INTO NE FL WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN JAX AND SGJ OFF TO OUR NORTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN SECTIONS OF E CNTRL FL AND EXPECT
COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO LATE AFTN.

TONIGHT...WILL NEED SCT POPS TO COVER EVENING ACTIVITY OTHERWISE
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE SFC TO 850 LYR OVERNIGHT SO CSTL COUNTIES
WOULD HAVE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLD NIGHT TIME CSTL SHOWERS IN
THIS SOUPY AIRMASS. WILL WORD CSTL COUNTIES FOR MAINLY EVENING
ACTIVITY ALLOWING FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO CONTINUE A LOW POP INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IF NEED BE. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FRI AND SAT...BIG PICTURE DOESNT CHANGE TOO MUCH. DYING UPPER SHEAR
AXIS WILL BE SLOWLY ON THE WANE ACROSS N FL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
AS MOISTURE LADEN 2 INCH+ PWAT AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE CNTRL
PENINSULA. DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO MAKE A PUSH FOR THE FL-GA BORDER
OFF TO THE NORTH BUT WILL NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL LEAN TWD
ETA/NGM SFC SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS HIGH PRES MOVING EAST OFF THE NE
AND MID ATLC COAST PUTTING US IN WEAK E/SE FLOW ON FRI AND WEAK SE
FLOW ON SAT. AVN MOST LIKELY OVERDOING LOW OFFSHORE SO WINDS SHOULD
NOT VEER AS MUCH ACROSS SRN HALF. MODEL POPS PRETTY CLOSE...LIKELY
POPS FRI (60) AND GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY (50-60) WILL DO IT FOR THE
TOP END OF SHOWER/TSTMS CHANCES THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

SUN...AVN SHOWS LOW PRES ON OLD BOUNDARY OUT IN THE ATLC WATERS WITH
A 1013 MB LOW CENTER WELL OFF THE SC COAST. AVN CONTINUES LOW LVL SW
FLOW SOUTH OF THE BNDRY BUT AS MENTIONED BEFORE THIS FLOW MAY BE TOO
VEERED. WILL COPROMISE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH PWATS STILL
AROUND 2 INCHES SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR 50 PCT POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

EXTENDED....MON-THU. TAIL END OF ANOTHER FRONT TO APPROACH N FL LATE
MON INTO TUE. AVN STILL WANTS TO LATCH ON TO SPINNING UP A 1013 MB
SFC LOW WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. MON-TUE STILL LOOKING FOR
SCATTERED AFTN/EVE TSTM ACTIVITY MAINLY SEA BRZ INDUCED.
WED-THU...MRF BRING SPAWLING HIGH PRES SYSTEM INTO THE ERN GRT LKS
AND NE ALLOWING TWO DAYS OF SFC NE FLOW TO DEVELOP (WELL SEE). MRF
ALSO SHOWS NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM BEGINNING TO ENTER THE PICTURE NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS. NW FLOW ALOFT BY LATE WEEK AND NE SFC FLOW WITH SOME
DRYING MAKING IT INTO THE NRN PENINSULA WOULD ARGUE FOR LOWER POPS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST SO MAY TRIM BACK A BIT AND LIMIT
CSTL WORDING WITH SCT ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...THROUGH SAT NGT WILL GO WITH E/SE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS
ACROSS THE WATERS. EXTENDED BRINGS CHALLANGES WITH WIND DIRECTIONS
AND WILL NOT VEER WINDS QUITE AS MUCH AS AVN PROGS. SPEEDS STILL
MAINLY 10 KTS OR LESS THOUGH. WITH WEAKENING OF ERIN...SWELL LESS OF
A CONCERN THROUGH TUE.

PRELIM...
DAB TT 072/088 072/089 074 15463
MCO TT 073/090 073/091 074 15464
MLB TT 074/089 075/089 074 15463

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...VOLKMER
AVIATION/FIRE WX...CRISTALDI

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
062000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 6 2001

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
BOUNDARIES FROM SEA AND LAKE BREEZES AS WELL AS OUTFLOWS WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS TODAY. STORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES DRIFT SLOWLY INLAND.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING AS LIGHT
SOUTHWEST STEERING WINDS PUSH THE STORMS BACK TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM VERO BEACH NORTHWARD.

STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY AND MAY DROP
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES IN SPOTS...RESULTING IN
FLOODING OF ROADS AND LOW LYING OR POORLY DRAINED AREAS. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR 50
MPH AND EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS TO A SAFE
LOCATION AT THE FIRST SIGN OF A DEVELOPING STORM...TO AVOID THE
LIGHTNING DANGER. IF DRIVING...BE ALERT FOR PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS. USE EXTRA CARE...AS IT IS EASY TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE
AND HYDROPLANE WHEN DRIVING ON RAIN SLICK ROADS.

MARINE INTERESTS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS. CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED. STORM
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS AVAILABLE
AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/HWOFILES/HWOMAIN.HTML

VOLKMER

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
062005-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1140 AM EDT THU SEP 6 2001

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
BOUNDARIES FROM SEA AND LAKE BREEZES AS WELL AS OUTFLOWS WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS TODAY. STORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES DRIFT SLOWLY INLAND.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING AS LIGHT
SOUTHWEST STEERING WINDS PUSH THE STORMS BACK TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM VERO BEACH NORTHWARD.

STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY AND MAY DROP
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES IN SPOTS...RESULTING IN
FLOODING OF ROADS AND LOW LYING OR POORLY DRAINED AREAS. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR 50
MPH AND EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WITH HIGH MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT THREAT FOR
WATERSPOUTS TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC OR LAKE OKEECHOBEE
ACROSS MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. SHOWERS IN THIS
AREA MAY ALSO PRODUCE FUNNEL CLOUDS OR LAND SPOUTS THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. REPORT ANY FUNNEL CLOUD OR WATERSPOUTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE.

MOVE INDOORS TO A SAFE LOCATION AT THE FIRST SIGN OF A DEVELOPING
STORM...TO AVOID THE LIGHTNING DANGER. IF DRIVING...BE ALERT FOR
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS. USE EXTRA CARE...AS IT IS EASY TO LOSE
CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE AND HYDROPLANE WHEN DRIVING ON RAIN SLICK
ROADS.

MARINE INTERESTS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS. CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED. STORM
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS AVAILABLE
AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/HWOFILES/HWOMAIN.HTML

VOLKMER