Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
240 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2001

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...LIKE PREVIOUS EVENINGS...TONIGHTS POPS WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LATE AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS. WILL LEAN TWD
HIGH SCT POPS FOR NRN INTERIOR AND N CSTL WITH MODELS SHOWING ENOUGH
MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW TO ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE BACK TWD THE
VOLUSIA/BREAVRD COUNTY COAST. ALL MODELS KEEP SOME QPF ACROSS THE N
HALF FROM 06Z-12Z...THOUGH THINK MUCH OF THIS FALL OVER THE ATLC AS
BOUNDARY DROPS OFF THE SE COAST AND HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO NORTHEAST
US.

ON THU...HIGH PRES PUSHES OFF THE NE US AND MID ATLC COAST AND
RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET HUNG UP OFF TO OUR NORTH. SOUPY 2
INCH+ PWAT AIRMASS TO REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FL. OLD SHEAR AXIS
SETTLES DOWN INTO NE FL LATE TONIGHT AND THU BUT SHOULD MAINLY AID
CONVECTION OVER THE ATLC WATERS. E/SE SFC FLOW...SOUTHERLY H9-H8
FLOW WITH LGT SW FLOW AT H7-H5 SHOULD ALLOW SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE INTO THE INTERIOR. FLY IN THE OINTMENT MAY BE
FRONTAL BAND CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL SHAVE FEW DEGS OFF TEMPS AND
COULD DELAY SEA BRZ ACROSS THE NRN HALF. MOS TEMPS CLOSE AND WILL
BLEND. LEANING TWD LIKELY N CSTL AND INTERIOR AND 50 POPS S CSTL.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS INTO EVENING PERIOD.

FRI...REMNANTS OF H5 SHEAR AXIS STILL ACROSS OUR FAR NRN ZONES AND
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FCST PWATS VALUES STILL HOLDING AROUND 2 INCHES.
UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES STILL BUILDING ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD.
ONSHORE FLOW WITH DEEP MOISTURE AROUND SPELLS ANOTHER DAY WITH
SLGTLY ABOVE CLIMO POPS. MODEL CONSENSUS AROUND 50 PCT WITH NOT MUCH
STEERING FLOW PROGD. AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IS AGAIN A CONCERN AS
MODELS STILL WANT TO HOLD ON TO MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUDINESS. LIKE
50 N/CNTRL CSTL AND INTERIOR AND 40 PCT FOR MARTIN/ST LUCIE.

SAT...DEEP MOISTURE STILL PROGD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW. SUBTLE RIDGE AXIS ON AVN ACROSS THE S CSTL...
SO MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH SEA BREEZE INLAND FASTER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. SCATTERED POP RANGE LOOKS FINE.

SUN THROUGH WED...NEW 12Z AVN PHASES 2 SHORTWAVES IN THE WEST
BRINGING A L/W TROUGH TWD THE ERN US BY SUN-MON. OLD 00Z MRF KEEPS
RIDGE ACROSS THE SE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ANY EVENT...TS ERIN
WILL BE APPROACHING 70 W BY SUNDAY AND CURRENT HPC EXTENDED TRACK
HAS A NW MOVEMENT IN EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD. LATER MODEL RUNS WILL
OBVIOUSLY SHED MORE LIGHT. MAIN EFFECT EXPECTED TO BE SOME SWELL
COMPONENT FOR THE MARINE AREA BY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT
EXTENDED FCST TREND WITH AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MARINE...MAINLY A SE WIND ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH 10
KNOTS OR LESS. MAY SEE SOME SWELL BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK BUT THAT IS
STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT.

PRELIM...
DAB TE 074/089 072/089 073 15463
MCO TE 074/091 073/091 074 15463
MLB TB 075/089 075/089 075 15453

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...VOLKMER
AVIATION/FIRE WX...KELLY

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
052000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1135 AM EDT WED SEP 5 2001

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED FROM VOLUSIA AND LAKE SOUTHWARD TO OSCEOLA COUNTIES AS
THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR. COVERAGE
WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE DUE TO INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE SEA AND LAKE BREEZES.

THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST BOUNDARY WILL ALSO PRODUCE SCATTERED
EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
STEERING WINDS MAY PUSH SOME STORMS BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST
ACROSS BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR AS THE
THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MOVE INLAND CREATING
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
DIME SIZE HAIL...STORM GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND RAINFALL TOTALS
NEAR 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR IN ISOLATED SPOTS WITH A FEW OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT WITH STORMS TODAY.

PERSONS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO MOVE INDOORS TO A SAFE LOCATION AT THE FIRST SIGN OF A
DEVELOPING STORM NEARBY...TO AVOID THE LIGHTNING DANGER. MOTORISTS
SHOULD BE ALERT FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS AVAILABLE
AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/HWOFILES/HWOMAIN.HTML

VOLKMER