Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2001

RATHER LATE START TO CONVECTION AGAIN TODAY...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERNMOST AND SOUTHEASTERNMOST CWA NEXT FEW
HOURS. STEERING FLOW FAVORS GREATEST COVERAGE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL COUNTIES. HIGH INSTABILITY AND
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS/INTERACTIONS COULD AID TO PRODUCE A FEW
STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. DRIER AIR WILL WORK DOWN THE PENINSULA...BUT PROBABLY NOT
FAST ENOUGH TO OFFSET DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...
FORCED BY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

MODELS CONSISTENT WITH MUCH DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PENINSULA MID-LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF SOME PVA ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER TROUGH...SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS...AND VERY WEAK
GRADIENT...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN A SMALL COVERAGE OF LATE DAY
CONVECTION. WILL KEEP POPS LOW...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO TOTALLY
OMIT.

WILL TREND BACK TOWARD CLIMO POPS BY THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH
WANES AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS/CARIB.

MARINE...LIGHT GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE WITH EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZES.

DAB BB 073/091 072/091 072 65433
MCO BB 075/093 073/094 073 65343
MLB BB 076/091 074/091 074 65343

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...SPRATT
AVIATION/FIRE WX...PENDERGRAST

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
202100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1217 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2001

...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING LIGHTNING STORMS EXPECTED...

THE COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING
AND INTERACTION BETWEEN THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

A FEW STORMS WILL FORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG BOTH THE EAST AND
WEST COAST SEA BREEZES AS THEY DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND.
STORMS WILL ALSO FORM NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE THE SEA AND LAKE
BREEZES INTERACT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW THE WEST COAST BOUNDARY TO
PUSH INLAND MUCH FARTHER AND FASTER THAN THE EAST COAST BREEZE
FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH. NORTH OF THE CAPE...THE EAST COAST BREEZE
WILL BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP...AND WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST AFTER IT
FORMS. TO THE SOUTH...THE EAST COAST BREEZE WILL PUSH WELL INLAND
ACROSS OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS THE
KISSIMMEE RIVER IN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.

COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AFTER THE EAST COAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES COLLIDE...
AND AS BOUNDARIES FROM AFTERNOON STORMS BEGIN TO INTERACT. THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION SHOULD OCCUR FROM EASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY...SOUTH TO
THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER...AND CONTINUING SOUTH TO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS COLLISION WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR STORMS...INCLUDING THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
NORTH OF VERO BEACH. STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT
WILL MOVE MUCH SLOWER NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE MAIN THREATS TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE.
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE ALL
POSSIBLE. MOVE INDOORS TO SAFETY AT THE FIRST SIGN OF AN APPROACHING
STORM AND WAIT UNTIL THE STORM IS WELL PAST YOUR AREA BEFORE GOING
BACK OUTSIDE.

TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY VALUES TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. IF PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON
...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AS NEEDED.

OCEANIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A GREATER THAN NORMAL
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. CONSULT YOUR LOCAL BEACH
PATROL FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...AND ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A
LIFEGUARD.

THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS AVAILABLE
AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/HWOFILES/HWOMAIN.HTML

SPRATT