Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
145 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2001

TONIGHT...SCENARIO SIMILAR TO THIS TIME SUNDAY. LESS-THAN-ACTIVE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON...
AND LIKE SUNDAY WILL LIKELY NEED MULTIPLE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION OF REAL SIGNIFICANCE. PLAN TO KEEP POPS SIMILAR
TO SUN EVENING FOR THE FIRST PERIOD.

NEXT H48...MODELS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING LONGER WAVE ERN CONUS
TROUGH AND PUSHING FRONTAL TROUGH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...REACHING
THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER BY 12Z WED AND STALLING OUT THERE. THIS
PUSHES THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FL (INTO THE STRAITS IF
THE AVN IS TO BELIEVED). THIS PLACES CWA IN A WESTERLY FLOW REGIME
WHICH LOOKS A TAD STRONGER WED, BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY SO. DIFFERENCES
SHOW UP AS TO THE EXTENT OF DRYING TUESDAY, THEN PUSHING THIS INTO
THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE WED WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES  ALL THREE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS OCCURRING TO SOME
EXTENT...HOWEVER THE AVN IS THE MOST EXTREME IN BOTH CASES. WILL BUY
THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ETA...AND GO 40/30/50/30 INTERIOR/NORTH AND 40
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR SOUTH/COASTAL.

THANKS FOR COORD TBW.

SIDE NOTE...RUC ANALYSES/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE WEAK UPPER
TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN SOUTH OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CENTERED NEAR
27N75W IS DISSIPATING AND THE FEATURE IS NOW ESSENTIALLY SURROUNDED
BY RIDGING ON THREE SIDES. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH
AND A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL INCREASE/
DEEPEN THE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE MEAN FLOW OVER FL DURING THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THIS PORTENDS THAT EVEN IF SOME SORT OF SFC TROUGH/
LOW WERE TO FORM...IT WOULD NOT GET ANY CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST. IN FACT THE AVN/MRF DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW IN THIS AREA AND
MOVE IT NE AWAY FROM FL.

EXTENDED...MED RANGE GUIDANCE NOW SLOWER TO LIFT THE RIDGE AXIS BACK
NORTHWARD...AND ONLY LIFTS IT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE IT
SHOWS IT TAKING UP RESIDENCE. THIS LESSENS THE PROSPECT FOR A BRIEF
RETURN TO EASTERLIES OVER THE SE COASTAL COS SEEN IN SUNDAYS  SOLN.
WAS WELL SERVED THEN BY NOT LEANING TOWARD IT AT THAT TIME...SO WILL
KEEP JUST GENERIC MENTION OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS.

MARINE...STILL QUIET. NO PRESSURE GRADIENT OF CONSEQUENCE...HENCE
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LTG STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PRELIMINARY CCF...
DAB BT 074/092 073/091 073 24454
MCO BT 075/094 074/093 074 34353
MLB BB 075/091 074/091 074 -4444  60

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/FIRE WX...VOLKMER