Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
115 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2001

TONIGHT...WITH BOTH COASTAL SEA BREEZES WELL DEFINED ATTM WILL NEED
TO KEEP SCATTERED EVENING POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR COS
(30/40)...AND SLGT CHANCE AT BEST ALONG THE SE COAST...ALTHOUGH WE
MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THEM ALTOGETHER IF THE ECSB/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BDRY MOVES FAR ENOUGH INLAND.

NEXT H48...GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS TO BUILD THE DLM RIDGE
WESTWARD ALONG 25-26N WHILE SHARPENING THE CURVATURE ALONG ITS AXIS
AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SE STATES. H50 HEIGHTS 18Z
SUN 30-40M HIGHER THAN EITHER TODAY OR 18Z MON (594/595DM V 591DM)
AND RUC VORT ANLYS SHOW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/VORT VALUES OVER THE WRN
ATLC WAITING TO PUSH WWD INTO THE CWA. AVN A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA BY H48-60...
WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BE RELATED TO A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE LOW
LEVEL EASTERLIES - I.E THE TWAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 71/72W. REGARDLESS
THE ECSB WILL MAKE FASTER/FARTHER INLAND PENETRATION TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PWATS ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN
1.7/1.8...GIVE OR TAKE A TENTH.

SCENARIO MAKES ME LEAN TOWARD SHAVING 10 PCT OFF POPS AREAWIDE FOR
SUN...THEN RAISING THEM BACK UP A NOTCH ON MONDAY. WARMING ALOFT
SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS.

EXTENDED...FIRST FRONTAL TROUGH STALLS WELL NORTH OF THE STATE...
THEN DISSIPATES BY WED NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME
SE THROUGH THU AS THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS NORTH AND WEST. ANOTHER
H50 TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FRI AND RETURN MOST
OF THE CWA TO A SW FLOW REGIME BY NEXT SAT.

MARINE...NIL HIGHLIGHTS. QUIET WX WITH NOTHING MORE THAN 10KTS OVER
THE MARINE AREA NEXT 5 DAYS.

PRELIM CCF...
DAB BB 073/091 073/091 090 2334
MCO BB 073/093 073/093 092 3334
MLB BB 074/090 074/090 089 1213  60=

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/FIRE WX...VOLKMER

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
112100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1055 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2001

...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH...

LATE THIS MORNING...THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND ALONG THE GULF BREEZE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE INTERIOR FROM WEST
FLORIDA. STORMS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING. AREAS FROM WESTERN
VOLUSIA COUNTY SOUTHWARD INTO METRO ORLANDO...THE ATTRACTIONS AREA...
AND ALONG THE KISSIMMEE RIVER WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST STORMS.

DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ALOFT...SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR HIGHER AND HAIL DIME SIZED
OR LARGER. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES COULD ALSO OCCUR. THE MAIN THREAT FROM LATE
SUMMER STORMS IS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. DONT GET CAUGHT
OUTSIDE AS STORMS APPROACH...OR DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVERHEAD. ALSO...
MOTORISTS SHOULD REMEMBER TO SLOW DOWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. DONT DRIVE THROUGH STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS.

FOR THE MARINE AREA...ONE OR TWO STORMS THAT FORM OVER THE MAINLAND
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
NEAR THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL.

THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS AVAILABLE
AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/HWOFILES/HWOMAIN.HTML

CRISTALDI