Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED PRELIM CCF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
220 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2001

CURRENT/TONIGHT...THE THUMB HAS APPARENTLY FINALLY BEEN LIFTED
ACROSS CEN FL AS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY AFTER THE CU WAS
VERY SLOW TO FORM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. IN FACT IT
LOOKED SO POOR...I ALMOST UPDATED LATE TO LOWER POPS AREA WIDE.
EXPECT TO SEE ACTIVITY TO LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS PREVAIL. WILL KEEP A SCT POP INTERIOR...PROBABLY IN THE
30-40% RANGE.

FRI/SAT...REMNANTS OF BARRY ARE PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH...BUT EXPECT
THIS TO MOSTLY AFFECT NRN FL. MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT E CEN FL
FORECAST WILL BE AN UPR LVL LOW SEEN ON WV IMAGERY NE OF THE
BAHAMAS. THIS LOW HAS BEEN PINCHED OFF FROM THE BASE OF AN UPR TROF
OVER THE ATL AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST TOWARDS THE REGION. WE HAVE
BEEN SUPPRESSED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS BY A PERSISTENT AREA OF
NEGATIVE VORTICITY OVER CEN FL...ALTHOUGH WE WERE ABLE TO BREAK
THROUGH FINALLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS THE FL
PENINSULA...LOOKS LIKE SHUD BE MORE INFLUENCE BY POSITIVE ENERGY BUT
MOISTURE LVLS WILL DECREASE DUE TO DRYER AIR...WHICH IS VERY
APPARENT IN THE WV LOOP ON THE WRN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. AT LOW
LVLS...WRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH FRI AND THEN
BECOME MORE SSW SAT AS A S/WV DROPS INTO AL/GA. THIS SHUD FAVOR THE
ERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS THE EC SEA
BREEZE IS HELD UP UNTIL LATE AND WILL REMAINED PINNED NEAR THE COAST
NORTH OF THE CAPE.

CURRENT FRI FORECAST CALLS FOR 40 POPS INTERIOR AND NRN COAST AND 30
POPS SRN COAST AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THESE NUMBERS ATTM. SAT
MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER CHC FOR TRWS AS THE UPR LOW MOVES INTO THE
GOMEX PLACING THE CWA ON THE MORE FAVORABLE ERN SIDE...AS INDICATED
BY FWC POPS. AM GOING TO STAY WITH MORE CONSERVATIVE MAV NUMBERS FOR
NOW THOUGH...WHICH MEANS SAME POPS AS FRI. CAN TWEAK UP THE HIGHER
FWC POPS IF NEED NEXT FEW FORECASTS. TEMPS SHUD REMAIN NEARER TO
CLIMO SAT AFTER ANOTHER WARM DAY FRI.

EXTENDED...MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS DURING AND AFTER THE WEEKEND...AS EACH RUN HAS
PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING BACK NORTH. LATEST
AVN NOW KEEPS THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN NEAR THE CWA THROUGH
MON NIGHT WITH DEEP EASTERLIES NEVER REALLY FORMING AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. LATEST RUNS ALSO SLOW DOWN THE TROPICAL WAVE...NOT MOVING
IT THROUGH UNTIL MON...WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE NOW PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION. NEAR CLIMO FORECAST FOR TEMPS AND POPS SEEMS
BEST BET UNTIL MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUITY.

MARINE...CONTIUED NO PROBLEMS WITH RIDGE AXIS NEARBY. WILL JUST
TWEAK PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PRELIMS...
DAB BB 074/092 074/091 074 243
MCO BB 075/092 074/092 074 443
MLB BB 074/091 074/090 074 132  88

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...GITTINGER
AVIATION/FIRE WX...CRISTALDI