Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
248 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2001

FCST FOCUS ON SVR STORM CHCS TONIGHT.

VISIBILE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CU DVLPG ALONG AXIS OF MAX LOW LVL
MOISTURE CONVERG ALONG WARM FNT...FM RST TO MLI. TEMPS OF 90F
AND DEW PTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S SOUTH OF THE FNT...PROVIDING
PLENTY OF FUEL FOR STORMS. WARM MID LVLS IN VCNTY OF FNT (18Z DVN
SNDG HAS +10C AT 700 MB) PREVENTING ANY CONVECTION ATTM.

BUFKIT SNDGS SHOW MAX INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA FORECAST BETWEEN 7
PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH REMOVING THE MID LVL CAP THE KEY TO POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER. MID LVL COOLING ASSOC WITH SHRT WV ERODES CAP WITH
H7 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND +6C. FCST CORFIDI VECTORS FM ETA...SHOW CELLS
THAT DVLP IN VCNTY OF SE MN/WRM WI TURNING SE TWD SRN WI. MSN ETA
SOUNDING...HAS CAPES OF 2050J/KG AND LI/S OF -5 TO-6 AT 02Z. AFTER
SHRT WV MOVES EAST OF STATE...H7 TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR +10 IN WRN
CWA AT 06Z...AND ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EAST BY 12Z...SIGNALING A
PROBABLE END TO THE SVR THREAT. CONRAD ANIMATION OF FCST SNDGS SHOW
SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE MAINLY SVR WIND/DERECHO EVENT FOR OUR CWA.

BOUNDRIES LAYED OUT BY ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT AND LINGERING SFC TROF
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION INTO TUE...WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVG ACROSS RGN. WRMFNT MOVS WELL NORTH OF CWA BY WED...
WITH 90S EXPECTED IN SRN CWA UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NEXT THREAT OF
PCPN COMES ON THUR AS LARGE UPR LOW CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS AND SWINGS
A SFC LOW THRU NE MN WITH A TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS STATE.

MOS GUID TEMPS LOOKING GUD...BUT A LITTLE COOL FOR WED.

.MKX...NONE.

REM

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-120500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2001

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...
...FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...

THREAT...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF
MADISON LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING OR
TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT NEAR THE WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS BORDER IS EXPECTED TO
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
IOWA OR MINNESOTA NEAR THE FRONT AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN DURING THAT TIME. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN.

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-120130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED LAST PARAGRAPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
720 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEARING DOWN ON SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ABOUT 80 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE
REEDSBURG AREA IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. REEDBURG IS LOCATED IN
SAUK COUNTY. THESE STORMS...SOME OF WHICH WERE SEVERE...WERE HEADING
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH.

BETWEEN 720 PM AND 820 PM...THE STORMS WILL STAY OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REEDSBURG AND WESTFIELD AREAS...BUT THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS WILL APPROACH. PEOPLE IN SAUK AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES WILL BE
THE FIRST TO BE AFFECTED BY THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THEIR ARRIVAL AFTER 830 PM. THE MADISON AREA
SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY ALERT FOR THESE STORMS AFTER 930 PM.

SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL SEE THE BLOWOFF CLOUDS FROM THESE
STORMS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH AT LEAST 10
PM...PROBABLY EVEN LATER.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

COLLAR

"

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-120215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
810 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2001

...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE NOTED ON SULLIVAN RADAR...

THE WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN SULLIVAN IS SHOWING TRENDS
TOWARDS WIND DAMAGE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
AREA MOST AT RISK IS SETTING UP TO BE FROM MARQUETTE COUNTY EASTWARD
TO GREEN LAKE COUNTY. THE STORMS WERE STILL 40 MILES NORTH OF THIS
AREA...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THESE STORMS WILL ACCELERATE AND
PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE...AS WINDS EXCEED 60 MPH. BEST ESTIMATE ON THE
TIME FRAME IS BETWEEN 840 PM AND 940 PM IN THOSE AREAS. THIS AREA IS
ALSO UNDER A TORNADO WATCH...SO BE EXTRA CAUTION IS MOST CERTAINLY
ADVISED IN GREEN LAKE AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

THE REST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE TIME BEING.
BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD. REMAIN ALERT AS THE NIGHTTIME HOURS ROLL
ALONG.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

COLLAR